Monday, April 7, 2014

New Moniker, Shirrens Dream and Social Inclusion

Is Social Inclusion just a crazy speedball who won a couple of very fast races? And nothing more.

Sure, his beyer number was off the charts. Yes, handicappers love the Beyer number. And it does mean something. And have value. But horsepeople, the kind that get up at 4am each day and spend countless hours with horses, doing what they do, know it doesn't mean that much. Real class horses, with solid speed and class, do it over and over, and they last. One fast race doesn't make any horse.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

April 5th, 2014: Woodbine Selections and Comments

 Best Bet: Anderlecht, Race 8

Longshot chances:

Lets Leavum
A Nashty Business

Race 1

1. Saulsbrook Fork
2. Ozzy Ozzy
3. Oaklea Victor

Oaklea Victor ran last time when sitting a perfect 2 hole trip. Can he make amends? Sure he can. He is capable enough with these types. But, he usually brings a low price and has failed quite a bit. I would play against him at this point. Others have better form and look more plausible. A horse that has won 7 of 16 in the last two years cannot be tossed out, but a horse that burns chalk money consistently can't be played with confidence either.
A Nashty Business managed to get parked past the half from the 3 hole last time and backed up once he was let on the front end. As mentioned before, with another driver this horse looks like he would be dangerous. That being said, even a lousy driver can fall into a 2 hole trip now and then. So, beware of him tonight.
Flight of The Kiwi broke again last time, his 3rd break from 5 lines on the page. He has tailed off badly from very good form a couple of months ago. When he was good, he took West Side Story all the way to the wire. His issue seems to be something more than immaturity. Probably a minor lameness issue. Until he shows he can maintain over a whole mile, he is a pass.
Alexander Lukas has not adapted well to this level after finally taking down nw2 twice. Looks like he doesn't have the overall speed for these. Now that spring has arrived,and they go faster each week, he appears to be a winter horse who has run out of time.
Ozzy Ozzy is of course the obvious choice. Right off the shelf he scored at 6-1 last time. As mentioned last week, Hayter is good at having them ready to go off a long layoff. He also has a history of having them fail 2nd start back. He likely gets it done, but at a likely 6-5, I would look elsewhere. He still has his moments where he is one stride away from going off stride. 
Devries Hanover is hard to like at any price. He finds multiple ways to get beat. Among them, acting up behind the gate, running for no reason in the mile, or just having to be held and not fully driven to keep him going. Saftic hops on this time as Fillion goes back to the Moreau horse, and as mentioned last week, he is not the easiest horse to just jump on and drive. He has upset potential, and one of these days he may put it all together. That could be 6 months from now.
 Saulsbrook Fork jogged last time at Flamboro after two solid 3rds there, and now he comes back to WEG for the very hot trainer Brealey. For the right price, he looks like the one. I would want about 7-2 or higher to play him, but on form and speed he appears to be as good or better than the two likely faves. Top call.

See R Chin Win has shown nothing to suggest she can compete with most of these. At best, she is racing for 4th or 5th money.

Race 2

1. Jenna Casimir
2. True Reflection
3. Eat Me Up

You don't see many races on WEG where every horse has a very legitimate shot to win, but this is one of those. So, there is a decent price to be had if you can figure it out. Trip is probably key, and therefore, tactical speed and driver matter a lot.

Eat Me Up couldn't get it done last time in this class with a front end mission. Parked early, it cost her at the end. She doesn't win often, but gets second and third a lot. She is one that usually needs to sit in and find room and a lane at the end. She is possible, if a lot of things go her way. I will look elsewhere.

D Gs Pesquero left hard last time and then had to wait for room up the rail when she had a full head of steam, only to be beaten by a horse on the outside with more momentum. She certainly fits with these and has a shot, but she isn't always consistent about pacing all the way to the wire. 

Its No Secret scored last time at this level for Jody, the 3rd time she has done that. Tonight she gets Randy, or someone else if he books off. I will pass, although she is capable enough. She is the likely fave, and I don't see that as a decent price relative to the possibility she doesn't fire without Jody.

Oceanview Bindi  moves up after failing on the front end last time. She was parked a long way to get that lead, so that has to be considered. As does her back class, when she has beaten much better than these in the past. However, right now, she is a longshot who wont get respect and will get hung or pressured if she goes for the lead with these. Pass.

Jenna Casimir  just missed last time a step lower when she moved way too late, something she does quite a bit. However, Puddy seems to have her very good again, and in the past she has left better when that was the case. She is my lukewarm top call.

True Reflection, left hard for the lead last time and then yielded to Eat Me Up down the backside, only to gamble for racing room in the lane which never came. She can certainly bounce back for a price this week. J. Mac takes over as Drury goes back to his dads horse.

Putmeintogo, who at times looks like a serious horse, other times fails miserably. The talent is there, but she is hard to like when she gets a short price, which is likely here. She did win parked the entire mile last time, and while that is admirable, she is also the type that bounces off that sort of effort.

Race 3

1. Up Front N Crazy
2. Order By Commander
3. Lets Leavum

A very interesting race. Fork. Yes? No? I am in the No camp. He gets a better post to work with this time, and likely takes no prisoners if he doesn't jump it off early, but I am not sold on him holding his form. I will play elsewhere, and take the price that will come with it.

Tag Up And Go comes in off two qualifiers. Don't see him as ready to tackle these. Maybe next time. One to watch as he was a pretty decent 3yo.
Fork got another tough trip last time and paid the price at the end. He has a long history of not holding his form and I see that again. Can he wire these on his best effort? Certainly. But at a likely 6-5, I will bet that he doesn't and play others who are just as talented but sharper and more consistent.
Lets Leavum raced okay last time to get 3rd, placed 2nd, but really wasn't doing enough off a perfect 2nd over trip where others battled hard in front of him and his cover won the race going away. He is always dangerous, but not always good. Longshot chance.
Up Front N Crazy got the worst of it last time. He left hard and sat on Fork's back, which appeared to be a genius move until that one let a dead horse on the outside go and retook, and that left him sitting behind a horse going the wrong way with the flow moving on the outside. I see his luck going the other way this time. Top call. 
Moontan has had a lot of chances to get it done and has not, and lately has even flattened out a bit. I will pass on him.
Order By Commander reversed his form last time on the big drop and almost got it done wire to wire. Even though he moves back up, when sharp he handled these types pretty easily. Fillion is back aboard for Puddy, and he is certainly a top contender.
  The Only One and Joseph Gerard both look to be horses that were sharp but have faded enough to be only bit players.

Race 4

1. Grin For Money
2. Drain Daddy
3. Monte Christo

Drain Daddy a top contender tonight, was on a front end mission last time and almost got it done with a lot better than most of these. He could easily have been my top pick and certainly one to use in the pick 4.

Twin B Impressive lots of chances with easier and he has failed. He meets some pretty classy and sharp enough droppers this time. I will pass on him until he goes back down and consider him then.

Calgary Seelster isn't getting it done at London and hasn't been competitive on this circuit even two steps lower. Pass on him.

Monte Christo raced pretty good in this class last time to get 2nd,  however,Drury ditches his dads horse for Calgary Seelster, which is a curious move. He is still in the mix in my opinion, but he doesn't win much.

Grin For Money my top call, drops and gets a better post. Last week was a complete no try from the 10 hole with a pretty tough bunch relative to this group. Expect him to be out and rolling a lot earlier this time. Jackie Mo knows when the money is there to be had, and when it isn't. His back halves are more than enough to handle this bunch.

Smokin Bear shows nothing for weeks that suggests he is at all competitive on this circuit, this class or even lower. Complete pass.

Classic Gent  is the wild card in this bunch. Is he still sharp enough to tackle the best ones in here. Maybe, but his last few suggest he is more of a bit player and he will be raced that way. I will wait on him to see if he shows he has more zip than he has showed for about a month. On his top effort, he could handle these.

Up The Credit, showed a small dose of his old back class last time, but still hasn't done enough and still carries a B track driver holding the lines. I will pass on him and wait for Jody to return, and hopefully get a price that night.
Broadies Song a Dover shipper with spotty form and off for 6 weeks will have to be seen to see where he fits on this circuit. Right now, it doesn't appear it is this class on this night.
Race 5

1. Speed Again
2. Stompin Tom Creek
3. Donau

Another mixed bag of class droppers, class risers, shippers and assorted horses with various levels of good and bad form. Easiest to just eliminate those who appear out of it and work by process of elimination.

  Cams Tux, Midnite Romp and Czar Seelster have not shown they can compete for the top 3 spots with some of the better ones in here. Pass on all of them.

Donau is now 3 races off the claim, all at this level, and he has failed all 3 times, last time on the lead until mid stretch when he gave it up and missed the board. Pass on him until he drops into an 8 claimer,and even then Auciello has not shown me any improvement to suggest he justified a 25k claim or this classification. Anthony is off after a crazy front end bottom the field out mission, Drury is back on, but, he is the type that finds ways to lose with any driver.

Speed Again returns after a short layoff, and after they tried to race him off the pace, which didn't work. I expect to see the old Speed Again at this lowered level, right to the top and see if he can take them all they way. I suspect he can. He is good fresh and when he gets his own way. I doubt Donau would take him on. Big class difference there.

Astute won the Preferred 3 at Flamboro last time after several tries to get it done. That is basically an 8 to 10 claimer with the odd better one in there. These are much tougher. He would have to significantly step up his game to have any shot. I will watch and see if he can. My guess is we see him in a 10 claimer next time.

Stompin Tom Creek is one not to discount right away with these. He had the dreaded 8 hole last time at Flamboro, and got parked a long way first over at London the time before that, with some okay types that would do in here. The start before that, he was wide a long way and just missed. Longshot chance for the win, and certainly in the tri mix.

Cool Rock drops below the level of his last win. He has been racing okay, but even his huge closing style has not got him anywhere lately. He always has a shot, but he isn't as sharp as he was and others look better in here. I will pass on him this time.

Wazzup Wazzup takes the monster class dive this time. However, he has tailed off badly lately, and maybe racing horses that were too tough for him has chewed him up now. He can't be discounted, but others in here will get the lead and without the lead, he isn't very dangerous in any class. I will take a pass on him tonight.

Race 6

1. Take A Pass
2. Sucker Money
3. If you must, play a longshot and hope the dart hits the bullseye

 A terrible bunch in which just about every one of them can be discounted. I wont even bother. I will go get a hot dog and fries while others attempt to sort out this less than inspiring bunch.

Race 7

1. Jac Spade
2. Dapper Denzil
3. Rave On
First Impression seems like he would be a lot better off in a 10 claimer, and that at best he is racing for smaller shares with many of these. I will pass.

Kennairn Buckwheat very much like the 1 horse, appears over his head. He has beaten some very soft 8 claimers, but these are much tougher. Can't play him at this level, even at huge odds.
Rave On is another stepping way up in class, but he has the back class to do it and his form suggests he is in the mix. He raced like a bearcat the last two times. He is def in the mix for the top 3, if not the win outright. Puddy rarely moves them up unless he is sure they will do.

Genesee raced okay last time for a horse that was off a month and yanked out of the post parade dead lame in the meantime. I thought he still looked off, and I will avoid him. If right, he is in the mix. I don't think he is.
Jac Spade was a big disappointment last time. Never in it, way too far back and even a 27.1 last quarter didn't get him in range. I expect him to rebound this time, but I would want to see at least 4-1 to make him playable.
Real Rocker, certainly raced tough last time, only getting beat by a trip horse. He was claimed out of that one, and I am still not sold that he can compete most nights with these as long as he is still locked on a line, which he still is. Pass.

Dapper Denzil has been sharp for many weeks, getting it done a few times and bombing out the others. He is in the mix, but not always one who shows up.
Blended Whiskey draws the 10 hole on the slight drop but he has trouble winning and that wont help him. Minor cheque,  maybe 3rd money, but not much chance of more. Inside, he would be a lot more dangerous.

Four Starrz Hold Em and Mr Big Head are two more who would be a lot better off in a lower claimer. Pass on both of them.

Race 8

1. Anderlecht
2. ThePaninsulahotel
3. Champagne Phil

Nothingbutmach returns to this circuit a much improved horse, but maybe a notch above where he needs to be, and faces some who have been racing okay a level higher than this. He would need them to fail to get in the win picture. Not tonight.

Stonebridge On Ice really stepped up last time. But these are even tougher. You can never discount an old class horse like him who can still do it on occasion, but I will go elsewhere this time. Others are simply still better than him at this point.

Nickle Bag a horse who will obviously take some money based on his recent lines, seems to me a horse who is gradually losing his sharpness. I will go elsewhere. Some of these are tough enough to outsprint him down the lane, and even his huge close has been a bit less impressive the last two times.

Anderlecht has been showing signs that he is near his old self and can handle a mediocre bunch like these. He almost got it done 2 starts back with much better, and now drop in with horses who look beatable. Top call.

The Paninsulahotel drops down a level, which for some isn't that big a deal, but for him, it is. He needs a certain type of trip with a certain type of horse to have a shot at the end. These are those types. Top 2 call, but maybe Anderlecht gets enough of a jump on him to hold him off.

Southwind Amazon has been off 5 months, while World Away takes a huge class hike. Pass on both of them with these.

Champagne Phil is the one who is on the fence with this bunch. His last was poor, and he does run very hot and cold. I wouldn't discount him for the win, but maybe he is tailing off a shade, just enough to get beat by the top 2.

Race 9

Mopey Corey or not Mopey Corey. That is really what this race boils down to. And if not Mopey Corey, then which one of these hard to like, easy to find holes bunch do you pick? I am voting not Mopey Corey tonight, based on the likely even money price, so I take a complete pass on this one. I will get a drink to wash down my hot dog and fries from my Race 6 intermission. 

Race 10

1. Cougar Hall
2. In Commando
3. Top Gear

You don't often see a Preferred where all of the horses have not excelled at the Preferred before, but this is that race. So, I will basically look at it as one step below the Preferred, which is what it is.

Dali is of course the exception to my above comments. He has certainly beaten Preferred and better in his past. But, that was the old Dali. The new Dali is the 9 year old who was off 3 years breeding mares and was so-so in his first start back at basically the same level he races tonight. Luc didn't really let him go all out last time. Will he this time? I say No. He needs one more. Minor chance, but I pass.
Top Gear won this class in his second last, and raced tough in the Preferred with no shot at the winner and finished solid. He is in the mix, but also needs to have his own way, which he might not get with some of these.
Machal Jordan has shot up the class ladder, winning a few and just getting beat in his last. But more importantly, altering his style last time and making the lead mid race with a huge brush which he carried almost all the way. He certainly is the best he has ever been, and merits a serious shot. Mayotte? Well, he is a low percentage driver. You decide. I will pass, but of course, I know he can reach up and bite me.

In Commando did what he needed to do last time with these to get up in time. That might not work this time. A few better ones to slay in the lane. And he likely comes with a short price. Pass on the win, but certainly a tri factor. 

Daddy Warbucks stays close enough to always be dangerous, and gets up the odd time, but usually it isn't enough for the win. He is certainly capable of getting 3rd, and better if everything goes his way, but others look better here.

J J Shark is super sharp, and moves up many classes to take these on. I wouldn't discount him, but his big finishing move might not be as potent with these. Longshot chance, but that is about all you can say.

Cougar Hall How can you not like him. He is 12 for 27 lifetime and just beat most of these while coming back off a month away. If he races to his form, he wins this race.
Lucky Terror is one month out of the box with a vet scratch in the middle of that from the outside. Following trip to pick up a minor share, and then we will see about him next week.

 Race 11

1. Winning Dream
2. Ideal Race
3. Evenin of Pleasure

Wide open race with most having a shot if things go their way. In these types of races, I usually go with the better drivers and the class horses who show just enough form to suggest they could get it done if they stick to that.

Ideal Race reversed his form last time with these and almost got it done. He is certainly capable of finishing the job this time, and will be raced accordingly.

Winning Dream dropped last time into this class, left hard but then got a terrible shuffle and had no hope. He can certainly come right back. For the price, he is my top call.

Evenin of Pleasure also got the shuffle last time and by the time he was out, it was way too late to matter. Post 9 hurts him this time, but he is also in the mix. The top 2 have a better post, so I went with them.