Thursday, December 17, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 17, 2015


Race 1

Overall synopsis: Hard to be confident in a winner here. I could see any of 5 or 6 stepping up. I went for the chanciest, yet probably most talented one to pull it off if the price is there and she parades okay. Trip type of race.

Probable Favorite: CRACKLIN ROSIE

I C YOUR SHADOW--gets a reluctant top call to graduate. She has the talent. She also has many issues. At least it isn't no talent, like many of these. She wasn't travelling well on the last turn last time, but still paced home okay to get  a share. Post parade is key. She must look viable, even though she is unlikely to look stellar. I could see my 2nd choice and 3rd choice taking the bulk of the money, so I will take 7-2 or 4-1 on her if it is there and she looks okay.

AMBROSIA SEELSTER--was taken back early in her 1st lifetime last time, she had  perfect 2nd over cover that towed her into it, but she hung. She could be just green, but she didn't show much go, bearing in quite a bit when she tipped off cover, and a shade into the first turn, then was flat under tap urging in the stretch. She has soreness issues, but meets a pretty soft bunch here and I doubt she takes chalk money like last time. She isn't much, but appears in the mix with these less than inspiring foes.

CRACKLIN ROSIE--Was out and winging in her first start, and she tired when engaged. Last time, she wanted to leave a ton, but Luc would not let her, ducked into the 3 hole, pulled and moved to the top, but had trouble clearing in a slow tempo. It could be Luc doesn't want her to be a runaway, but then she had little resistance in the lane again. She did go faster, so there is that. She could be a maiden and chalk burner for a long time then pop one night at big odds. I will list her with a minor shot but getting picked off by one, if not both, of my top choices. If she somehow could sit a live 2 hole trip, she would be more viable.

WARRAWEE RAP--I don't like her for the win, tonight, but I am not ready to give up on her yet. Her last few have not been good, but she is young and shows tiny flashes of ability. Last time she floated out, ended up behind one who was going backward and was trapped in,  but she didn't do much when free, under urging. She raced okay enough. Still not there yet. She has to do more. Others still look better than her.

NAUGHTY LADY B--drops out of the Autumn Series where she was foolishly entered as a non winning maiden against proven winners and Sire Stakes winners. She was rightly trounced, and now returnes 0 for 14 to meet her own kind. Fillion is hired and together with the drop, she will be overbet in my view. I don't love her anyway, and call her mid pack at the wire. These aren't soft enough top to bottom to go to her in this spot.

ALLIWANNADOISPLAY--returns from a summer vacation, after training down and then starting once in Clinton in a Grassroots where she didn't do anything of note. Two qualifiers back, and she appears short of the time she needs to compete with at least the top 3. She will have to be seen. Can't see her being dangerous tonight. In her last qualifier, she drove straight, followed willingly, but was well off in a slow half, but when moved, paced a strong back half of 56.3. Lets see what she's got if she has to get down to the half in 58 or 59.

ROMANCE WRITER--got away near the back, and was gapping badly the entire way, to finish dead last in a field with some pretty suspect ones she couldn't pass. She shows nothing to suggest a move inside will help her or that the time in between races was a contributing factor. Total pass for me. She has to at least compete to get me interested.

DONTBRUISECARRIE--she can leave a ton, but post hurts her in that she either gets spent getting there or doesn't get there at all. I will wait and watch for a better post and hopefully some maturity and manners. She is short on both those fronts currently. 

SO RAVEN--a very well known quantity at this point to those who follow WEG. Last time she was sideways behind the gate, bearing in the turns, had some moderate late pace but she is regressing on the whole. 9 hole is enough to discount her tonight on top of the rest. Pass and toss for me.

TOYS LEGACY--post 10. Bad form. Suspect class.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: I don't like the obvious and logical fave, and I like two others for varying possible prices to cap off the double. I will probably use them both and hope I get some value in Race 1 to go with them. I only need one of these two to produce. I wouldn't count on either by themselves,  but together, its one or the other in my view.

Probable Favorite: CROWN CLASSIC

MAGIC SON--will get my top call based on what I saw last time. He left for the pocket, stayed there the entire way. It was a good overall even mile and he kept up at the end but wasn't threatening. He seems better than the rest and still might pay okay. I will take my shot on him.

UNE DUHARAS--was eased out last time, traveled well the entire way, pulled on the turn and trotted home strong, under mild urging. She looked like a very good prospect and different animal under first time Ben B care.  Her back half in 56.3 would certainly blow by these if she can do anything like that from closer to the pace. I give my top choice a slight nod, but I pretty much like them equally. One probably produces, the other blows up. 

CROWN CLASSIC--exits the Autumn Series where she was a bit player when she stayed trotting. These are obviously a lot easier,  but she is 0 for 22 lifetime and she hasn't impressed me when I've seen her go period. If she can stay trotting and be managed, she is legit to make 3rd. Not sold on that either but not much behind her I can list ahead of her. That isn't any kind of confident recommendation of her shot at the win. Which is minor at best.

BIG RED LAVEC--doesn't have much finish, but seems like he can keep trotting and capitalize when others don't.  I think that isn't a good play here like it was last time when he brought bigger odds. I will pass on him tonight. He has a minor shot if others blow up and he lucks into a win. 

MAN OF DESTINY--is a late starting 2yo making his first start for a purse. His qualifier was slow, and he will have to do more. Hard to think this one can win first out.

DONICUS--based on his breeding,  this guy is bound to be hard to keep trotting. He arrives with trotting hopples, which makes sense. He has had them all along and still made breaks. That is not good. Eddie Green is his driver. Again, not good. I have to pass on him this time and watch him go.  His winning qualifier on November 26th was good enough to beat these, yet he was raced first out at Flamboro off that and ran, then had to requalify. That is suspicious.

RESULTS MAY VARY--was never involved at all last time, and is still a work in progress. I hold out hope down the line this one will come around. Not a play for me tonight.

TALA SEELSTER--is a grinder type. Last time she  seemed to have trouble keeping up when the pace picked up. She is steady, but needs others to fail. Post 8 tonight and I see her trying to come late again for a minor share.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Playing for a bomb who likely bombs out himself, because I can't justify taking a short price on anything I like behind him.

Probable Favorite: DICKS SECRET

MIYAGI HANOVER--I will go back to again as a big longshot who gets it right about once a month. That got him 2nd 3 back at huge odds. He can leave if he can make the gate, and this post suits his style. Since Byron drives him steady now, he knows what to try to get him away successfully. Maybe that works here. I don't love anything else enough to list him below those. Again, he could easily blow up and be distanced. He is that type.

TORTOLA SUNRISE--was solid last time, first up for the win and full value. Any other driver, and a better post, and I'd go to him on top. With this horses history, plus Henrikson and post 8, I will slot him 2nd. 

DICKS SECRET--got the anticapated very long trip last time from the 10 hole and that cost her any chance at the win and also a spot on the ticket. Back in this post, she is on top by the half and I hope my play can follow her and pop back out. She could go all the way again. I don't like to rely on these types at a short price, and that is what you are going to get back in here.
INCREDABLE FRANK--tried to wire these last week but got picked off by two he meets again, and others who look as capable or even better. I call him to miss the ticket at a shorter price.

JOSEPH GERARD--has just enough back class and current form, plus a crafty and seasoned trotting driver to get him around and pick up money. One night this winter that will probably end up a win. I don't know when that will be, if at all, but I don't see it as tonight. Too many decent enough options.

C R AMIGO--went a big trip last time, probably the best overall mile he has put on a racetrack, but looked horrid at times doing it. JJ managed him perfectly to get 2nd. He was bearing in horrible the entire way. I see him as a ticking time bomb who is lame and will run soon and often. 

AMIGO DE GRANDE--didnt look good all the way around last time, lame as expected, and the years have taken their toll now. I can't go to him unless I see a scenario that really favors him at a monster price to take that risk on. Pass for me. He is tough, but they all can't rely on that forever. 

WARRAWEE PROTON--has never been very viable at this track and now had to face straight claimers who have beaten far better in their careers than he likely ever will. Toss for me.

KREMLIN-was brutal last time. He has no go most nights now.  No shot.

BOY MEETS GRILL--looked live on live cover and flow, but hung badly. He impresses you when you watch him trot, but he doesn't get it done when it counts. Post 10 tonight is death for one like this that only needs minor adversity to give it up.

Race  4

Overall synopsis:  I could really take any of my top 3 here and think I have a pretty good shot to get to leg of the early pick 4. Deetzy hangs like a typical Jereme's Jet. Half A Billion has the tough post but has been set on the right course. Sword of The Spirit comes off two suspect drives by the trainer and now switches to the CC with the rail. He gets my nod because of that. Lukewarm in this case.

Probable Favorite: BRINGHOME THEBLUE

SWORD OFTHE SPIRIT--I go to the driver change angle. Horse is sharp. Two bad trips and he has showed high speed before. He needs some kind of saving to get that last eighth. That is what the big time drivers get paid for. Top call.

HALF A BILLION--is a different horse under the new trainer. He travels well now, as opposed to before, and he showed he can really finish when he can pace full out. First up into a very accelerating pace didn't do him in last time. Very close 2nd call.  Could have went top call and been okay with that.

DEETZY--comes late every time. He was circling them and looked like the winner last time, but he hung when it mattered and that was just enough to lose the win photo. I can't trust him to go all the way, but he will eventually. Have to use him in the pick 4.
SOAKING UP THE SUN--I am not impressed with what I've seen from him the last few starts. He looks to be tailing off and he was only marginal with these types anyway. The Moreau magic has worked and now the spell has worn off.

HEY DALI--needs a perfect trip that allows him to have something left, much like most Dali's do. I don't see him getting that here. JJ took the 10 horse against him. That is enough convincing for me. I could go back to him another day under the right circumstances.

BRINGHOME THEBLUE--was impressive and drew off against similar to these 2 back, then tried much tougher and was over his head. He fits here, but I like others much better , and I see him as the likely favorite, and one who fails. His soundness issues concern me, although he paces through them for now.

SHIPPEN OUT--won two back off a perfect trip after many failed attempts, but these are tougher, and while he was in the mix last time, they proved hard to pass. An issue he has had with easier anyway. He has to step up. So far, he has not.

NEW YORK NIGHTMARE--doesn't seem to have the leaving ability or finish with these. I can't see him in a race where there are several viable options who have better current form.

 NEEDLECREST--has looked awful lately, and I wont go near him until he paces a complete and viable mile. 

LETS WAIT AND SEE--draws the 9 hole here and that seems too much for his kind of lazy, non trying cheater type to overcome.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: Very logical fave in this one. I play a very risky longshot who would have to turn the tables on his suspect form.

Probable Favorite: SHADOWFALL

NO TROUBLE HERE--has been drawing very bad posts, and other than that, had one here a few back where he was in contention from a decent post, but made a break  and then could only finish evenly. Burgess is well known for popping with longshot youngsters like this when he figures them out or its time to push the button. I am taking a flyer here for sure. I'm looking at 30-1 I would think to take that risk. He paced in 55 3 back and that kind of speed makes him just legit enough to consider.

SHADOWFALL--couldn't pass the leader last time first up after that one got a huge breather and accleratated the back half. That was a solid first effort at this track, and  since this race is kind of thin, I expect him to take heavy chalk action. I think he is live, but he is beatable enough that I will play a wild longshot over him. Vanderkamp burns a lot of chalk money on these types.

BAD GAMER--was taken back at the start, ducked in, pulled and has a lot of go, then got up for 3rd. he is a prospect. I think he needs one more experience start and then he is very live. He could go by them tonight, but I will go elsewhere. He wouldn't shock me.
METTA WORLD PEACE-is very green, hard to drive and steer horse, both behind the gate and in the entire race. The speed is there. If there is some improvement with that, he could be a prospect. Fillion takes his dads horse here, and that means a new driver. Trevor is certainly no slouch, but this horse is not the easiest horse to manage and driving him once helps. I can't rely on him tonight to be the one.  On talent, he is capable enough if things happen to go exactly his way.

PODGE--draws the 9 hole for his first lifetime start. Saftic generally races this kind easy and comes late to braven them up and teach them. Exactly what he did in the qualifier, and I would expect the same here. That wont get it done. He will have to be seen to see what he can do under the lights.

HOME JAMES--started out with Larocque, but didn't make it this summer after two tries to be ready to go for money. After a rest, he showed back up at Rideau in the fall, prepped by Yves, raced a couple of times and then put on the engine, with a very backed down 2nd quarter which was enough to win against those types. He had the rail that night. The rail at Rideau is still a huge advantage. Post 10 tonight. No thanks. I will watch and see if he is actually a prospect and hope he draws better next time if he is. Because its his dads horse, I expect Fillion to look after him and save him for better days.

SPANIARD--To me, this one doesn't look like a great prospect. Last time, off a layoff, he left out for the lead, followed in the 2 hole. He was bearing in bad coming out of the last turn, and then gapped the entire stretch. He would have to do a lot more to go with many of these, some of who he meets again. Pass.

CLASSIC BOLT--no good rat.

SPORTS COLOGNE--no good rat

WINDSONG LEOPOLD--bad gaited, over his head at this track.

Race 6

Overall synopsis: I found it hard to list anything here for the win. I could take any of my top 8 and think I'd need them all to be safe in this leg.

Probable Favorite: KAMIKAZE LINDY

WALK THE PLANK--Almost lucked into the win last time when the leader self destructed while home free. He still went down to another who he seemed on par with. I list him first only because he puts himself in position to win most nights at this level, and most of the main threats could easily blow up again. Not exactly a confidence building statement. It terms of a lukewarm call, that is almost two ice cubes in the margarita type stuff.

FLEET BUMBLEBEE--was 2nd best to a bearcat last time. So, exclude that one and this guy has two in a row at this level, and a solid  in his first start over this track in this class as well. That is hard to against. He probably takes 2nd choice money. I am not sold he keeps the ball rolling, as his kind rarely does. I could see him on the ticket, but something beats him in here. The who that is, I can't really say.

KAMIKAZE LINDY--will he behave and stay trotting? No clue. I can't rely on him and he still probably will be heavily bet. When he does behave, he probably lays over these.
FLEXCEPTIONAL-has not been good since the spring, and is on the comeback trail again. Tyrell is a very good trainer, but he was never a trotting guy, and he seems to have issues keeping trotters going good. I have to see this one turn it around to regain my confidence. I caught her once in the spring at the right price. Since then, she has been NFG.

CANDIDA--almost never wins. There are enough touch cookies in here that I don't see her changing that. I think Pat is happy with 2nd and 3rd with her any time he can get that.She is almost 6, has 2 lifetime wins, and is 1k short of 100k. She could get to 200k and only have 3 wins. If she gets to 4 wins,  she might not get to 150k for 4 years. Pass on the win front.

BENVENUTI--has really matured well, acts better on the gate, will sit the trip, but still has a lot of trouble with the last turn. Because of that, he compromises his win chances at this stage. He is gritty and that is a plus. I like others better in this spot. He has to move up slightly here, but he didn't win below either.

JUSTICE DELIGHT--had the 10 hole last time, first start Puddy, and while he made a move, he stopped completely in the lane. I will watch him again this time. He has to show he can go with these. The better post gives him a better chance to do that. Trevor will likely bury him to give him a better chance to prove what he brings to the table. 

TYMAL FIREITUP--was spent in the stretch last time and was lucky she didn't miss the ticket. She drops out of a stakes race , but many of these look tougher than most of those. Renaud isn't Fillion either.

I JASMIN--post really hurts her chances. She can leave big, but if she is used, she wont finish. I will look elsewhere in this race. If she had drawn to the middle, I'd have considered her a pretty live longshot.

MAGICAL PUMPKIN--was raced on short days last time, and was very sore. Post 10 here on the move up. No shot in this spot. She was jammed for a reason. Carmen probably knows she is now in deep with these types.

Race 7

Overall synopsis: Another race where I had trouble listing a winner.

Probable Favorite: READ THE PROPOSAL

ANTAR PHIL--had no pace and was gapping badly last time after leaving out hard from the outside. He is very inconsistent and always has been. Which is typical of this bunch. I will play  him on top but this is a race I'd use several in the pick 4 and hope I got one of them. I wouldn't play him straight up to win.

READ THE PROPOSAL-tried to wire them coast to coast, got a breather 2nd quarter, accelerated last quarter in 27 flat, and was just picked off in probably his best overall effort in a long time. He traveled well which he doesn't always do. He is in peak form, and I'd list him on top but he is the likely chalk and I'd prefer a price in here. One of many with a legit shot in a trip race. The question with him is how much does he have to go here to the half to maintain control? You never know in these races. If he gets the breather again, he can  take these all the way.

IMKEEPNTHISGUY--wasnt traveling right last time, made a skip break to the half from the back, being held closely until the lane, finished with pace. He might  have needed a shoeing adjustment. If that is the issue, he is sharp enough to blow by all of these at a good price. Just another option among many.

CASIMIR OVERDRIVE-was being beaten on last time to keep up in his return race. I didn't like what I saw, and I will pass on him.

LANCASTER PARK--was first up last time, and flamed out, as he usually does when he is asked to do that. Lasix hasn't seemed to help him. I can't play him as is.

STEVE SAID--typical Well Said. When they ask him for more, he doesn't give it. No thanks.

VEGILANTE HANOVER--his poor starts and racky gait keep me away from him.

ROCK THE DREAM--moves up and was marginal with far easier. 

 TWIN B SPORTSMAN--has to show me he is legit with these. I doubt he is.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: I will not play the 10 horse on top. Even though he looks the best. He could easily blow up here. If I am going to have one blow up on me, I will take my chances with many others who could, and take the price in case I get it right. Pretty much a pass race in here. I list them in order I like them, but no comments.

Probable Favorite: PISCEAN











Race 9

Overall synopsis: Favorite is sound, she jogs. She isn't, could be any of 5 or 6 I list behind her.

Probable Favorite: WHISTYS PARADISE

WHISTYS PARADISE--much sounder last time. When sound, she lays over a bunch like this. Post parade is critical with her. She was even sounder parading last time. 

REGIL MEG--likes the top and can get it. From the inside she doesn't have to work so hard early. She can stick around for 2nd if all that plays out.

B SANTANNAS LOVE--sat the 2 hole last time, popped it as was a clear 2nd, but no match for the winner she meets again.
CYNDALIANNE DUC--goes off the claim for Carmen. She isn't a gritty winner type anyway, and she has declined the last few. I like others better.

PATHTODOVER--got 2nd last time here. She is good at times, not good at other times. I like a few others ahead of her in this one. She is capable enough on her best day, even at this age.

MARIGOLD BLOOM-looked steppy leaving last time, pulled first up, went nowhere and was pretty lame backing through them. No thanks.

PRETTYNDANGEROUS--ships in from Rideau on the reclaim for Curran. If she has a better post, I'd think she has a shot at the ticket.  She doesn't.

OLIVIAS WAY--mid pack type who I never play at this track. No thanks on her also.

 BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE--was awful last time. As lame as you can be. She is iron tough to even pace with that pain. I can't play her on a one bomb race where whatever she had in her made her forget the pain. 

Race 10

Overall synopsis: Simple play on the trainer change. 

Probable Favorite: REGAL FAME

REGAL FAME--first time Brealey. Money on this type. I expect a very short price and will take it. My line is 6-5. Anything below that, I can't have. Horrid bunch that wont be hard to beat if the trainer bump angle pans out.

BIG PETES STYLE--had every chance last time and shot the rail in the lane, just getting nipped. One of these days, that will work out.

EL TORERO--likes to cut it or be right behind someone who will. Last time he got hounded, and that might have taken some sting out of him. He held okay enough to think he is in the mix if the top 2 dont pan out. I'd want him on my pick 4.
ARNOLD DICK--is solid, but he doesn't want to do much more than he did the last two, and he might have to here. He barely held for the win last time. His luck should run out here. 

MAN OF MANY ARTS--tried to brush to the lead last time, but he had no brush. Fillion was urging,  A Mac was trying to let him go, but he had no intention of wanting by. As rats go, he is the Mickey Mouse of this Mousekateer club.

ALEXAS PRAYER--circled up last time and if he was any stock would have won going away. As it was, he didn't even get by the leader, who looked cooked when he came to him. He is the Vice President of the club his friend listed one door above commands.



 EVERGREEN ARTIST--Maywood 4 claimer rat who still hasn't found a level he can beat in this country.

FORCE SEELSTER--10 hole and he'd be 50-1 in this group from the middle of the car.