Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $12 on CASIMIR LOW GEAR in the 8th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $12 on D Espoir in the 9th
Best Place Bet:$10 on Hape in the 7th
Best Show Bet: $10 on Katies Beach in the 4th
Worst Win Bet: $10 on Rightly Said in the 4th
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Race 1
Overall synopsis: Once again, we open with a crapshoot. Not as bad as 2yo green colts or fillies, but not far off that either. These are those ones that never graduated from that stage, and are at various stages of being dispersed to B tracks or Mennonites at some point. And of course, there are a few who still have potential and are prospects and are the ones that will be heavily bet in here. Figuring out their chances is the key to making money in a race like this. The rest is just guesswork, with the profit built in if you can identify the false favorites. I will give it a go.
Probable Favorite: LINDY ON THE ROCKS
Value Win Price 5-1
JENALEAH very inconsistent at this point, but she did trot a good mile last time to be in the pack to the distant cinch daylight winner. With these, if she can get away clean, she has a shot.
P L INDYANACA tried to run away and hide on Stakes horses last time and it almost worked. He is still a maiden, and he is coming along. The price might be a tad short tonight, but with Lindy in the mix, if he stays around 7-2, he is playable. Fillion ditches him. That is a concern.
HALO EFFECT very erratic and badly behaved filly with talent when she does behave. I will list her 3rd, and I'd toss her on for the double, but I would not play her straight win. She could hurt you, but she isn't likely to help you. I'd cover on that angle to get to the bottom of the double.
Play Against:
LINDY ON THE ROCKS comes in 0 for 8, with some fast lines and a hot trainer who does well shipping here when they appear ready. With the lines and form of many of these, that likely draws 6-5 or less. I will gladly take that action.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
MONOPOLY BLUE CHIP--is very hard to like at this point. At best, he picks up the pieces of the failed attempts of others. I will pass. I suppose he could step up. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it.
MAGICAL GEM--I wont touch any horse that refuses to start until I see them go to the gate on their own accord. For now, I will pass on this one. I suppose with the speed shown, it could win if it wants to race and many fail. That is a lot to count on.
NO SHOT
A ROD HALL--did nothing at all last time and appears to be a project horse. He isn't even at the stage where I watch for a future play. If he goes a bit tonight, maybe.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
TORTOLA SUNRISE----shows flashes of nice ability, but draws bad and has the stone hands and poor vision of Per still to deal with. I will pass again, and the price will be big. Could get it done. I wont have him if he does.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
STRIKING CHEETAH--has a history of making breaks, and now put the trotting hopples on after two clean lines trying them out. I will watch to see if that is enough. Sometimes, its enough to keep them trotting...barely..and no more.
Race 2
Overall synopsis: I am playing against the logical, heavy chalk here. With one who has issues all over the page, but figures if he is fit and healthy. We just don't know. The price will make my decision for me. I will be very firm on that price point.
Probable Favorite: VEGAS ROCKS
STONEBRIDGE SPUNKY has missed a month, off a poor raceline, first out for new connections. Then sick, now in for a tag, which is about where he belongs. Possibly they are looking for a free pass to make one score. I don't know. In any event, he is certainly no cinch. Jody took him over two others, and if the price is right, I will play him. Other than the chalk in here, this is a very soft bunch.
Value Win Price 6-1
BAD BAD BOY was a lively 2nd last time we saw him here, but he went to Georgian, and got unrealistic again, and achieved the result you would expect. Jody picked against him. I put him in my top 2, but I don't like him for the win. He should be on the ticket if the trip is good.
Play Against:
VEGAS ROCKS looks tough here, and he will be. But, the price will be very short this time. Risk/reward. These types don't keep it going forever, and he isn't exactly a bearcat. He is also at the mercy of the pace, and that can go against him on a very rainy night.
LMC NUKULAR STRYKE doesn't impress me where he won, how he won, and who he has beaten. He is in deep to make the ticket.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
SHADOW NEWTON--doesn't finish enough at this track to win races. He has had ample chances and failed. Pass.
BELIEVEINYOURMACH--has not impressed me when I've seen him race lately. He is a failed colt who is looking for a level. I'm not certain this is it. Jury is out.
HE SAID--was first off the claim last time, raced hard,and gave it up, much like most from his sire do. I suppose he could turn it around. I don't see it, but with this class, it doesn't take much. I went elsewhere.
NO SHOT
WHOS IN THE MIST--0 for 38. Pass.
Race 3
Overall synopsis: The decision is to take the risk on the one who ran last time, Muscle Kit, and play against the one who is iffy, but the more talented one who behaved last time, Renegade Magic. I play for the upset, but with these, you just can't be sure.
Probable Favorite: RENEGADE MAGIC
MUSCLE KIT made a break last time at Dresden. I give her a pass for that. Her previous lines were good here, and she will bring a decent price due to who the likely fave will be. She is a big, longstriding filly, and might not have been a good fit for Dresden. For this track, with the long stretch, she is back where she belongs. The nature of the condition of this race indicates she is getting another bite of the apple she has already eaten.
Value Win Price 3-1
MISCHIEF SMILE
Play Against:
RENEGADE MAGIC
MASS RAIL
ALLIES GIFT
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
JUDY THE BEAUTY--
HAPPY HOLIDAYS--
NO SHOT
PINKY THE INTERN--
GIONA--
LONGSHOT CHANCE
ALFA MERSADIES--
Race 4
Overall synopsis: Mixed bad here. I think a few are on the edge of breaking through, and I listed them in my top 3. Could be any of them.
Probable Favorite: RIGHTLY SAID
KATIES BEACH seems to hang around..but is another among many in here who don't have that little bit more it takes to win races at WEG. Somebody has to win this. She has a decent shot if she gets the trip. She appears to not be fond of working for it.
Value Win Price 4-1
FIESTYS LEGACY 2nd time starter, just went around last time. She gets Zeron tonight with Mario away, and since she took her time down to the right ballpark, I think she has a shot to upset the apple cart here. I am not completely sold on my top choice.
MACH MAGIC Is close to figuring it out, but still, she is not getting it done. I list her 3rd, with a shot. Jody gave her a fair chance last time, and she had no response when the pocket sitter sailed right by her. Her lack of grit is becoming an issue.
Play Against:
RIGHTLY SAID first time Moreau. I'm not sold on this one, and Moreau hasn't produced lately. I will play against and watch for a possible better score and price another day with this one.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
TAILWIND HANOVER--one of these days. Bad trip last time, but its always something. I thought about listing her top 3, but I went elsewhere for tonight.
NO SHOT
YOU CANBEANANGEL--qualfier was okay. Not enough for me to think she has any shot at the win this time.
NICE TRIP--gapped the gate bad last time. I have to see her do better before I think she is worthy of being considered.
CAVIART CARI ANN-- 0 for 14, and she has been a failed favorite from good posts. Can't see her being dangerous.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
TERRORCAM-- still waiting for a sign. Still haven't seen much of what I thought was there last year. Some never wake up. Maybe she will, maybe she wont.
GOT SOME SPARK ---looked horrid for several starts, but appears to be coming around. One thing about his, they seem to go really off, and then he gets them fixed up for a while and then sells them. I am watching for that. Not sold yet, but I'm window shopping.
Race 5
Overall synopsis: hate this whole bunch. take an all in the pick 4 if you must play it. I don't even like my top choice much the more I look at it.
Probable Favorite:
WINDSUN MADISON
Play Against:
MYLITTLESTARSHINE big time hanger in the lane. No thanks.
LMC MASS OAK
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
STOKED--
ROSES IN THE RAIN--
MY MY HEY HEY--
NO SHOT
GAELIC PRINCESS--vet list
TATTLE TALE HALL--
LONGSHOT CHANCE
MASSIMA--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
THE SPRINTER--
Race 6
Overall
synopsis:
Probable Favorite: CORSICA HALL
ELECTRIC WESTERN I think he doubles up here. He was getting weak last time, but it happens. He looks like he has a lot of go to me.
Value Win Price 5-1
ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL
Play Against:
CORSICA HALL still not impressed with this guy, and he gave it up last time.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
TWO OF CLUBS--
BRINGHOME THEBLUE--
NO SHOT
MCENROE HALL--
GALAGHER SEELSTER--total knee knocking rat.
REAL RAYE--has not stepped up at this track.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
SHOULDHAVEBETMORE--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
R U MACHIN ME--
Race 7
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:
HAPE
MY KID SISTER
Play Against:
MYSTERY BET
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
FASHION GODDESS--
IN SECRET--
ONE DIRECTION--
NO SHOT
SOUTHWIND CHAMPANE--
LONGSHOT CHANCE
CANDIDA--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
GAME ON HANOVER--
Race 8
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:
CASIMIR LOW GEAR
GENESEE
WALKS OF LIFE
Play Against:
INTENDED STYLE
SANNATLE SLEW
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
RAVE ON--
ADVERSARY SEELSTER--
CLIC K--
NO SHOT
WOGGY ROCKS--one of the worst claims I've ever seen.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
CANADIAN EDITION--
Race 9
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:
D ESPOIR
MADMAN HALL
LINDY LAND
Play Against:
BIG RICH
GRANA PADANNO
MINOR SHOT
LUCK O THE IRISH--
WIN THE DAY--
NO SHOT
AUNT LOTTIE--
RANDOM LIGHTNING--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
NOBLE POWER--
Race 10
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:
CROWN ISLE
VAL AMERICA
Play Against:
SLIGHT TOUCH
UNIQUE BARAN
MINOR SHOT
S K CROSBY--
NO SHOT
BROTHER JOHN--
NORMSTRIKESFAME--
PANEDICTINE
LONGSHOT CHANCE
HELLSAPOPPIN--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
GOLDSTAR RAIDER--
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