Best Win Bets:
CRACKLIN ROSIE in the 7th
BENVENUTI in the 8th
HEY DALI in the 9th
Best Longshot Win Bets:
SEDONA SEELSTER in the 1st
MIYAGI HANOVER in the 6th
Best Place Bets:
SEDONA SEELSTER in the 1st
CRACKLIN ROSIE in the 7th
Best Show Bets:
HEY DALI in the 9th
P L INFERNO in the 4th
Worst Win Bets:
CALISCAPE in the 1st
Thoughtful Leader in the 3rd
DICKS SECRET in the 6th
MAGICAL PUMPKIN in the 8th
SURF REPORT in the 9th
STEVES LEGACY in the 9th
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Race 1
Overall
synopsis: I view the two probable favorites as sucker money, especially Caliscape, but Hes Gone Bad is almost as bad a value, although not as volatile in terms of a blow up candidate. Hard to pick a live one from the rest, but I will attempt to do so.
Probable Favorite: HES GONE BAD
SEDONA SEELSTER --appears to be a late blooming, slow developing 2yo. In his qualifier, he blasted right out and ducked into the 2 hole. Followed along, loosely at first, then tightened up and followed like a pro. Gapped a shade turning for home, but they were going fast in front of him. He finished strong enough, going a mile in 157.2, and if he can duplicate that effort and style, and take a second off that time with fitness and experience, he is a possible winner at a decent price. He is ML 8-1, and I'd hope to get a bit more, in the 12-1 range. At that price, I'd take a chance on him. He is a shade steppy in the turns, which gives him a pass on his Flamboro lines. Those turns would probably do him in. At Woodbine, he can get around. Or should.
Value Win Price 12-1
MANDO FUN I could have listed him as my top choice. But without seeing him on the track, at least post parading, and preferably warming up, we have no idea how sound or unsound he might be. The vet scratch and 5 weeks off are troubling. He hooks up with Nixon, a good angle, and he paced in 54.4 over Dayton, which would handle this bunch easily. I'd use him on the double or any of the picks, but straight win is hard to play. If he happened to be 6-1 or higher, I'd think about a straight win bet if he parades like he appears to be sound.
BAD GAMER draws the 10 hole and comes to this circuit off two so so efforts at Harrah's Philly. Its hard to see him winning, but its not out of the question on the scene change and trainer change. He is possible to come late and get a piece. That is what I call him for. He needs to improve his final quarter times. Maybe the big track achieves that for him.
Play Against:
HES GONE BAD started poorly again last time as has become his habit due to being very steppy coming to the gate. That puts him in a hole he probably isn't good enough to overcome. He does pace good once he gets rolling and gets back into the race, but that effort is muted by road trouble he creates for himself and the energy he has to expend to catch up. On paper he looks one of the best here. On the track, he still appears to be bad value until that gait issue is corrected. I haven't seen that happen yet, so I go against him and his short price. He is also 11 starts into a 2yo season, and that has got to be wearing on him at this point.
Anticipated Win Price 8-5
CALISCAPE looked horrid most of the way last time at the back, in a field that was littered with future 4 claimers. He bagged 3rd, because the ones behind him were the ones who will be bad 4 claimers. The ones that beat him aren't much either. I say he only gets worse here, and the money that comes in on him for the 2nd time Adams angle is sucker money. If McNair tries to gas him out of there, I think he runs before the turn.
Anticipated Win Price 2-1
The rest:
MUSIC TO MY GEARS--not sure what to make of a first time starting 3yo in December from the 9 hole who has not shown much speed. Kingshott has a pattern of starting them late and racing them well into their aged years while grinding out money. This could be another of those. Based on all that, even if he does have the speed, we wont see much of it tonight until late. He has the chance to make the ticket if he is legit.
LEON B FAITHFUL- doesn't look like much, was actually choppy gaited barely keeping up, had no pace in his qualifier and has had trouble making the races period. He neither looks viable tonight or a prospect for WEG, or maybe even the B tracks. He would have to show me something I don't see is there.
NO SHOT
THINK AGAIN--is an ugly gaited pacer who at times looks like he will overcome the spreaders, whack a knee and just fall down. Because of that, drivers either stay way back with him, or leave then put him in the middle of the racetrack for safety. Either way, add that to his winless record, and he can beat me at 100-1 if he can. Chasing a longshot like this is a good way to lose money you could save and play on legit ones.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
MACHERATI--paced a strong qualifier, on the chooch all the way, picked off by one who has already graduated and looks pretty good if he can stay sound. He picks up Fillion here, and that can't hurt. However, he is unproven, lightly raced and shows trouble all over the page. I could see him making the ticket, and winning if he is as good as he looked in the qualifier if the top two faves bomb out. I don't see all that as likely. I'd be watching him over closely in the post parade to see how he paces. The jury is out.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
FORCE SEELSTER--got away last from the 9 hole last time in a phony 10, and stayed there until they turned for home. He made modest, steady gains on the also rans in a very slowing pace. He still would need 2 more seconds to be dangerous with the top end of this field, and he would have to work for it. I don't see it. Lets see him go forward, go faster and keep up and I will watch for that.
Race 2
Overall
synopsis: 2YO trotters. Good luck with these. I will just list my thoughts. Hard to think you can pick a winner off the program with these.
Probable Favorite: SOUTHWIND GIZZEL
BLUESTONE MUSCLES --will get my lukewarm, top call. She left out, sat in and back, moved when CC felt like it was time and went by the leader easily in good time for the track surface that day, relative to what she faces here. Any first time starting 2yo trotter is suspect at best, but if the price is okay, she is worth a shot, assuming she post parades like she is okay under the lights the first time. Not all of them do.
Value Win Price 7-2
SOUTHWIND GIZZEL Is a tiny filly, who gets around good and has enough speed to hang around and pick up pieces. Last time, that got her 2nd. She seems to be a 2 minute trotter at the moment, and that might be just short of the winner again, whoever that might be. She is 5/6 on the ticket, and I see her as 2nd or 3rd tonight, but an unlikely winner as the post time favorite.
Play Against:
ERJA ran last time at the start at London with Riina, who drives again. She is the ML fave, and while I'm not sold she goes off as that, she will likely be a shorter price. Bad value for a tricky filly to drive with a driver who many times is teaching more than competing when she handles the lines. Her 58 mile in the Autumn final likely fools a few bettors who give more importance to that than the things I just mentioned.
Anticipated Win Price 3-1
The rest:
NO SHOT
GREGO--had nothing in his qualifier and showed even less in the race after that. He appears to be no stock. He is better off at Flamboro with his own kind.
QUEENSBURY--will have to be seen. Off those lines, with those final quarters, its hard to see her keeping up at all.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
PRINCESS ELSA--was purchased at Harrisburg and now has 2 starts under her belt for Joe Hudon. Each time she went a shade faster, without really being dangerous. I see a similar trip here, and she possibly makes the ticket, maybe the exactor. She needs to do more. I'm not sure if more is there. Vernon maidens are rarely legit at other tracks if they don't step up right away.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
KILMER ROAD--was on the engine in his qualifier but looked awful, all over the track, on a line and seeming that he would run if given his head or allowed to trot any faster. Maybe he matures. This trainer has a history of sending them out, they run, they qualify, they run, etc. And the odd time, they win at boxcars. I will take a wait , watch and see approach.
WANAKA--first time starter for Team Henry. The back half was fast and she hasn't done anything wrong yet. I'm not sold with this type until they race one time when it matters. She could very well leave out and daylight them. Or, not even make the gate. I have no clue and her shorter price tonight makes me avoid her altogether.
Race 3
Overall
synopsis: If race 2 was impossibly tough, this race is only marginally better to sort. Even to pick a probable favorite, which is somewhat easy most races, was tough here. I went with the horse that has the fastest racetime lately over this track. That doesn't mean I like that horse. I don't. But I can see the sheep flocking to that angle.
Probable Favorite: THOUGHTFUL LEADER
PREMIER GLITTER --why not her? Her last race was a win, if allowing for track and conditions, that is probably a 58 and change mile at this track, which probably wins this race tonight.
Value Win Price 7-2
BIG RED LAVEC Made a nice pre-race appearance in the post parade last time, and raced okay enough. That gives him a shot if he can come back and do that again, and take another second off his overall time. That isn't a big stretch. He leaves enough to avoid the anticipated multiple breakers in here, which gives him a shot at a clean trip to make his move, if he has one.
GOLDEN GABBY Was first up last time, but faded badly. That was against nw2, because she has two lifetime wins and some money made. She gets in with maidens here, and that is a significant angle. Her time is in line with these, she is 3rd time lasix and 2nd time over this track. She has a shot. As much of a shot as most of these.
Play Against:
THOUGHTFUL LEADER seems to have good days and bad days. On the good day, he can wire these. On most days, he will find a way to lose. He is 0 for 15, and many of those were legit entries with a legit shot at the tote board that he botched. I feel safe going against him. He will find a way to lose.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
The rest:
NO SHOT
PERFECT ROAD--is 0 for 21 lifetime and has been making mistakes, mostly due to lameness issues lately. Can't go near this one as is. Too many X's on the page for a horse that isn't that dangerous even when there aren't any.
LITTLE STUIE--does not have a flat line on the page in a real race. That will be the goal tonight. I'd bet against him even pulling that off.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
STRIKING CHEETAH--0 for 15 lifetime and spoiled a soft 2 hole ride in a gapping field last time. I should toss her outright from the 8 hole, but Mitchell has the ability to turn this kind around fast. So, I don't toss. But I don't like either.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
CALIFORNIA RACHEL--shows up in Weber's barn, picks up Fillion, and trotted a fast enough qualifier that would suggest she can win this. However, she has had issues just getting to the races and maintaining. I give her bit player status tonight, and if she shows me she has matured somehow, I might play her next time. I have to watch her to see what type of horse she is on the track.
Race 4
Overall
synopsis: Pretty ratty bunch of phony claimers that belong at other tracks, but WEG is short of horses, so they are now WEG horses. I will go against the obvious here and play for some value. I can't count on a Jereme's Jet rat who one moved to the top and then hung on for dear life to get it done at 9-5 this time. Last time he was a value play. This time he could be the sucker play.
Probable Favorite: BIEBER HANOVER
P L INFERNO --gets my top call in a mild upset for a decent price if he pulls it off. His last, with a gate break at London, left him parked and spent by the turn. I can give a young horse a pass for that. He was pretty good before that, getting 2nd twice in time that translates well to this bunch. Billings has turned a lot of B track rats into short term, viable WEG horses. This could be another of those. Post parade is key. He has to be sound and look lively. Anything less than his best and I take this play back. He is 14 of 18 otb. When good, he is viable and many of these don't look that much better than him.
Value Win Price 7-1
ARNOLD DICK Hooked some tough bearcats in the Maratimes, relative to what you might face there normally. Mostly, they were too much for him. None of those currently would see a 10 claimer or anything close to it. He did pace in 57.4 over Charlottetown, and his first start over Flamboro had him pacing in 56.4, back half in 57 and change, first time Mackenzie. He has an Armbro dam,which means he has some breeding behind him. The potential is there for him to step up at this very reduced level. Or, he could just be NFG. He will be a bigger price. I'd use him if that holds. 20-1 would be a start. Less would mean a pass.
MAN OF MANY ARTS was a month between starts last time, left out, had to take a seat, got a shuffle and couldn't really get rolling until very late, and he came home even from there. He comes back on shorter notice this time, 2nd time in this class after attempting horses with apparent aspirations at a future. JJ goes to Billings horse, which I took on top. If he doesn't pan out, and my 2nd choice doesn't either, I think this guy with Fillion has a shot to be the one, in a race where its hard to be confident in any of them. His 1 for 24 record this year is hard to ignore. So, there is also that.
Play Against:
BIEBER HANOVER is the type that needs the lead and to build cushion. he doesn't like to take off the gate, and even when you do, he needs to move. And like most Jereme's Jets, he sees the tote board coming and begins to stop. Which he did last time. The wire saved him then.
Anticipated Win Price 2-1
MIDNIGHT PLAY is 2 for 37 over 2 years, and generally finds a way to get beat, even when he is somewhat live. His 2nd place finish last time, put together with the soft nature of this field, means short price. It means play against to me.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
The rest:
NO SHOT
JET BLACK CADILLAC--1 for 39 life and draws the 9 hole again.
EL TORERO--10 hole again. Not gaining post advantage is all he needs to add to the list of reasons why he doesn't win this. There are others anyway. He is a cheater.
JIMMY BE GOOD-I refer you to the program page and his last two lines, and many others before that. In a race of rats, he is the rattiest of them all.
ALEXAS PRAYER-overall isn't much and his last quarters in the last two races with B track types lead me to discard and toss his chances here. Carmen hasn't helped on this one, nor did first time lasix last time. I suspect his stay and Hotel Auciello has reached check out time.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
ARTISTIC CRUISER-left hard for the lead last time, parked to the 1/4, let one go who wasn't doing
much, then got jammed in a bit, got back out and finished a closing 2nd.
he is a mid pack type who can win off the perfect trip. otherwise,
bottom of the ticket type. He could win this, but is more likely to find a way to not do that. Too many things would have to go right for him to get there first. I wont count on that happening.
Race 5
Overall
synopsis: Hard to find value here, because its hard to go to the longshots, and hard to stick with the likely shorter priced ones who haven't done enough to justify confidence. I went to the faves, but I am not confident in them. I'd use a lot of them in the pick 4 to get by this leg.
Probable Favorite: READ THE PROPOSAL
FRANZO --raced well enough last time, first time at this track and this class, to suggest he is a player. However, he is 0 for 19 on the year and let suspect ones pass him last time. I anticipate he will take 5-2 action, and that is too short for me to back him. In a field of hard to like types, he is likeable, but probably not playable. It's that kind of race.
Value Win Price 7-2
READ THE PROPOSAL has one style, and appears to have another who will push him in that endeavor. So, like the one above, he has a shot, but his odds will likely discourage me from taking that shot with him. I suppose the post relief helps him a bit. He still is front-end dependent, and that hurts him when he isn't much and doesn't carry it well.
SKY GUY Is one who runs in horrible at the B tracks. So the A track could help him. Trevor added to the mix might also. Hopefully he has enough overall speed to take advantage. Earlier in his career, he did not. He only had flashes. He was off a month between starts last time, but comes back fast this time.
Play Against:
none
The rest:
ROCK THE DREAM--went 1st off the claim for Joe C last time, looked very steppy trying to get away, and was never in it. He comes right back here. I have to see something to suggest that issue is solved. I will have a look tonight, but I don't think he will have sorted it out.
DEES ROCKETMAN--continues to show he is NFG. Total pass for me. He would do well to find a B track that is big enough for him to get around. Pompano might be a good fit. This track isn't the answer.
IMKEEPNTHISGUY-continues to go backward and look horrid doing it. Post 9 tonight. No thanks. He is being tagged tonight. I doubt it helps. This is one Brealey can't get going. Nobody gets them all going.
VEGILANTE HANOVER-puts in ugly steps leaving and thus is held on to and digs a huge hole he is not that great at digging out of. 10 hole means he gives up another 4 or 5 on top of that. Not tonight considering all that.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
PIER HO TEMPTATION--is a one trick pony. He needs the front, and wont even sit a happy, following 2 hole willingly. On top of that, he doesn't have enough gate speed to always get to the top or force a 2 hole open. Its always possible he falls into a perfect trip here. In that case, he is probably the best one in this race. If you want to take a flyer on that angle, its a viable one for a big price.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
HIGH RESOLUTION--strikes me as a willing enough horse who would be dangerous in the phony 10. I will keep my eye on him here so I can assess if he is still that if and when he dives for cover.
STEVE SAID--tried to qualify free legged, which is a curious thing, but ran and now aborts that strategy. I'm not sure what to make of him, or whether he is good enough for these. I would think he is better off in the phony 10. Lets see where he fits. Not a win tonight, in my view.
Race 6
Overall
synopsis: Its not the type of race I like to play. A logical favorite, who is no bearcat, with the 10 hole and an aggressive driver who will drive her off her feet to either win or get parked a long way. Not many options if you don't like her. I start there. Not confident I can find predictable value elsewhere.
Probable Favorite: DICKS SECRET
MIYAGI HANOVER --shows flashes of talent which suggest he can handle this bunch, if....he behaves and the trip is perfect. 15-1 ML this time, 32-1 last time, I'd say 18-1 is about right here, and I wouldn't take less but would want slightly more to take a shot with him. He easily could have me cursing him by running at the start.
Value Win Price 20-1
UTOPIA ran last time but was solid the few before that with these. That is his history. He is a buyer beware type. Hummel has a history of fixing issues between races and turning form around fast. Keep that in mind. I'd want to see 7-2 minimum to consider trying him. That might be in play here.
GIRL DRAMA wins her share at this level, but always comes wide and late, and that makes it tough to get all the way there unless they battle early and they are coming back to her more than she is coming to them. That could happen here with the chalk out in the 10 hole and others who might not be too willing to let Henry by without a fight.
Play Against:
DICKS SECRET comes off 2 in a row with these, but gets the 10 hole here. We have seen many who are dominant lose the edge when they face that type of adversity. If the win price is as I state below, I go against her and take my chances the trip does her in. 7 hole or better, and she is solid gold. If there were 2 scratches and you could make the case for another running early, that gives her back the edge. Otherwise, play against for the win.
Anticipated Win Price 8-5
The rest:
NO SHOT
C R AMIGO--shows a lot of X's on the page, and only a mediocre qualifier to get him back on the main card. Total pass until he proves he is at least viable.
TORTOLA SUNRISE--is on the decline, and seems hard pressed to be anywhere near getting a cheque here, let alone win. The Moreau bump did its work, then wore off.
WINE PHOTO-outstaggered a horrid lot 2 back, but other than that, he isnt dangerous for the win most nights. Post 8 only makes that statement more valid. JJ took the 3 over him. Nuff said.
JOSEPH GERARD-can leave a ton if he doesn't run before the start. Sometimes, when he does that, he can go all the way. He seems to be used up however, and a place like Rideau allows him to be that and still win. Tonight, he is still racing at WEG. With the 9 hole. Off suspect lines. Pass.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
BLUSH AND CRUSH--been off 5 weeks plus. She isn't that racey anyway, for the win.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
MR CANDYMAN--ships in for Allard off some very bad lines and an okay qualifier. Beware of a setup. I don't know the horse. I will look him over closely parading. For tonight, I have to only watch. He could pop and prove me wrong.
Race 7
Overall
synopsis: If my top choice comes back to her qualifier, she is the one. Young horses, you just can't be sure. Post parade is important here.
Probable Favorite: CRACKLIN ROSIE
CRACKLIN ROSIE --was laid off after an early start and came back with a super sharp qualifier in which she went fast and looked the best. If her on track appearance matches the program in the post parade, she is my best bet of the night, assuming she stays at the win price I tag her at. I am counting on Barabaras Shadow to keep that price in range.
Value Win Price 2-1
BAD AS LEADER Is a 1st time starter saddled with post 10. She was well back of Cracklin Rosie in her 4th qualifying attempt, but it was a fairly good one. I don't think she can take the winner, but she is in the mix if that one has any issues and she can get a decent trip herself. Most likely, she makes the ticket in some fashion. Puddy is good with young, first time starters. He has only had her for 2 of those 4 qualifiers, and there was a lot of improvement from qualifier 1 to 2. If she can go forward a bit more, she has a shot.
BARBARAS SHADOW showed some late promise in her first outings, but has looked poor on the track lately, mostly a horse that is hurting and has trouble accelerating and maintaining. I don't put it past Zeron to address and conquer that, but she still seems to take a lot of bettors money, and tonight might be the same. I will slot her for 3rd, but I don't like her chances at all for the win.
Play Against:
none
The rest:
NO SHOT
UP YOUR GAME-was gapping the entire way last time and doesn't look capable enough for this track. She has not showed enough speed yet to justify any other assessment.
WARRAWEE RAP-had terrible cover but got up for 4th last time. She is coming along..very slowly. I keep my eye on her to pop, and that could be tonight. But there are too many viable options to think she can take all of these, or even make the ticket. The jury is out on when she clicks in, not if she will.
DONTBRUISECARRIE-might have been a play if she drew a better post. I will pass on her from out here. It would be great if she steered better and behaved on cover as well. I will watch for signs of that. She has ability. But she is just too green at this stage.
WISHES FOR YOU--0 for 27, and off since August. I will stop there.
TOYS LEGACY-took off running like a T bred last time. She didn't look like much before that anyway. Pass for me unless she shows something for next time. Not tonight in any event.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
I C YOUR SHADOW--shows flashes of speed mixed in with lots of moments when the driver is just trying to hold her together. Her type have one good night that gets them the maiden breaker. That could be tonight. Last time she looked bad but gets back in with maidens this time. I don't like rating horses that are deliberately raced over their heads and then dropped back in where they belong off suspect variables.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
MACH MISS-made a very dirty break down the backside last time. Looks like she wants to go too much and hit a knee while she was being rated. I'm watching for signs of maturity. She paced in 54.4 her first lifetime start. She has promise but issues.
Race 8
Overall
synopsis: I don't like the chalk to repeat here, for reasons I state in my comments. I have a viable one I like for the win, and a chancy unknown one who is also possible. The rest look like bottom of the ticket types at best. This could be a very gapped out field.
Probable Favorite: MAGICAL PUMPKIN
BENVENUTI --was very hot in post parade last time, settled down okay in the race, picked up live
cover and fit well. He needs to go more, and is likely to mature. He is a big
strong colt and Phil knows you have to manage him to get him away clean, but from there, he has the talent to hunt this bunch down at a decent price.
Value Win Price 12-1
GRAND PREMIERE first time Perriera/Allard ships in from Hoosier off about a month. He finds a soft bunch, and isn't out of the question. I like another better, but I could see him.
JOYOUS HALL left hard last time, made the lead, yielded, and came back out again for 2nd. She was
all out for that and isn't likely to go forward, but backwards off that
trip. That might still bag 3rd in this group, possibly 2nd, or 4th. Not for the win.
Play Against:
MAGICAL PUMPKIN hung bad 2 starts ago, then last time, on the lead, lasted, however,
putting in ugly steps most of the stretch and was bearing out horrible. She would have to be sounder. I will watch the post parade to see if that is the case. As of now, I assume its not and go against her.
Anticipated Win Price 8-5
The rest:
NO SHOT
B FLOREAL--doesn't look viable to me.
METS LIFE--same as above.
CRAZY BLUE-saved ground, was going forward in the stretch then hung. probably running in again the farther he went. He was doing that before that start as well. Bit player at best.
NIGHTONTHEROAD-1 for 17 life, and the 10 hole. He goes even and steady all the way around, which would make him dangerous from the middle of the car. That might be next time. Not this time.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
ARNIE--got the maiden win, but he has had trouble finishing miles for the longest time and nw2 are all the ones who beat ones like him on the way up. He has to do more. I think, one of these nights, he will. That could be tonight. It could be in April. That is why he is a longshot.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
SECRET MISSY--ships in from Rideau, and has the 9 hole. She has to be seen with these to gauge whether she is legit. I don't know yet.
Race 9
Overall
synopsis: Many of these pop up from time to time, but more than not, find a way to lose after they found a way to win. The key is getting the one who has not won yet, but looks like tonight is there night. I have one of those.
Probable Favorite: CHARLOTTES COLONY
HEY DALI -left out hard last time, had the lead but let a poor one go, who backed into him
while the flow pinned him in. He finished very well when out and free. I expect him to be live this time and driven with more purpose to win. Top call.
Value Win Price 6-1
CHARLOTTES COLONY left hard last time from the 10 hole. made the lead, then backed away badly. One
trick pony type who has no grit to finish, as per most of his sires foals.
Play Against:
STEVES LEGACYhad the perfect trip last time, tipped for a clear lane, had the winner measured but hung badly.He just has trouble finishing the mile. I will go against his type every time.
SURF REPORT was well off the gate, running last time, got it together, made a big move on the turn, while running in bad in that turn and the stretch, but yet got it done. He has looked horrid at the gate a few starts now. He is ready to blow up.
The rest:
NO SHOT
AFFLUENZA--?????. Not sure why he re-entered this horse in this class.
BELIEVEINYOURMACH-seems over his head in this class at this track. Post 8 only makes it worse.
ANTAR PHIL-was hard used for the lead last time, and paid the price at the end. He seems to be on the downside of the form curve. I will pass from the 9 hole tonight.
NEEDLECREST-takes the high tag and the 10 hole that results. He didn't look good parading or in the race last time. I'll pass.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
LETS WAIT AND SEE--if this wasn't a Brealey horse, I'd list him no shot. He has multiple issues, and Braeley has had him a long time. No improvement. Tagging him has not helped. He can't drop in for the phony 10 because he doesn't fit the conditions. No mans land for him.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
DEETZY--made the big rush last time. That is his racing style, and I keep waiting for a change towards showing a touch of gate speed to make that move more potent. I keep waiting and watching. No sign yet. That indicates he has a limited, one brush move.
Race 10
Overall
synopsis: Grab bag of bottom level claiming mares. The fave this week was the bomb last week. That is really how it goes more times than not in this class. Hard to predict. Soundness and trip mean a lot. Those aren't easy to predict in advance with these types.
Probable Favorite: BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE
TWIN B INSPIRING --is likely to try and go down the road for Waxman and Trevor. I will call her to pull that off. Not terribly confident. I'd have to be firm on the price, and I think it might not come.
Value Win Price 5-1
MOREMUNKYBUSINESS Generally stays in, saves ground and takes her chances. Last time she hung on cover. She is always possible if she trips out. She could here.
BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE Was much the best last time at bombs away odds. This time she will be bet down, and while I think she is legit, she is no bearcat. I will call her 3rd, could be 2nd, might double up.
Play Against:
none
The rest:
CARLY HOLLYWOOD--has one medium move that will only get her as far as the race flow and circumstances dictate. P Mac is aware of that and drives her accordingly. She will probably win one this winter. Which night? No clue. She will lose most of the time. That, I am certain of.
PATHTODOVER-as she has aged, with this caliber, she is a cheque getter type. I stick with that assessment until she proves otherwise.
JENNA CASIMIR-has suspect form, but she has the class and pops every now and then with these types. Beware, but hard to back on her last few.
JET HOT STUFF-10 hole is enough to sink her battleship for tonight. Not that it was hard to think that even without that nail in the coffin. It was probably already shut on form and winningless attitude.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
ST LADS PIXIE--goes for Billings and JJ, and if there is any longshot from the pack candidate, its this one. She is racing well at the B's and beat these once already on the page. In a race where there are many options, she is as good as any.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
ROMANTIC FEVER-was claimed by Joe C at Sarnia for 5, but has not worked out. He put her in a claimer series but that didn't work out either. I keep my eye on her. When she gets good, she can be really good. Currently she isn't.
REGIL MEG-is one I like, but the post is an issue tonight. I will keep my eye on her, but its too much for her to overcome.
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