WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 5, 2015

Best Win Bets:  
VITAL SIGN in the 2nd
WIN THE DAY in the 5th
MAKE SOME LUCK in the 6th 
AMERICAN ROCK in the 7th
MACH ON THE BEACH in the 8th
DILLY DALI in the 11th
Best Longshot Win Bets: 

GOOD FRIDAY THREE in the 1st
MAPPOS MOHENHAY in the 4th

Best Place Bets: 
CL ART MAGIC in the 3rd
AMERICAN ROCK in the 7th
Best Show Bets: 
 MAPPOS MOHENHAY in the 4th
CHAMPAGNE PHIL in the 10th
Worst Win Bets: 
PAN STREET USA in the 1st
JULERICA in the 1st
REGALLY READY in the 4th
MY MY HEY HEY in the 5th
NICKLE BAG in the 6th 
ADKINS HANOVER in the 7th
NATURESCAPE in the 8th

HIGH FASHION MEL in the 11th

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Race 1

Overall synopsis: Somewhat wide open tilt, and I go to two who are off form or just not producing up to the potential they showed in the spring. 3 year olds sometimes wear down, and then click back in this time of year. I will play for that here. 

Probable Favorite: JULERICA


GOOD FRIDAY THREE --is very hard to like off his first two efforts back in Robinson's barn. However, he has paced two 54 miles,  possibly not fit enough to go more, even though he has been in very good position to go forward and has shown more speed in the summer. In relative terms, he meets an easier bunch than last time, and if he can turn his form around--big if--but if, he can handle these. The price has to justify that. I have to have a minimum of my value price. I expect and want more, but I would take that price if he parades okay, which he seems to anyway every time.

Value Win Price 18-1 

TEAM CAPTAIN  had post 10 last time and a resulting no shot trip. He did come a monster back half and a very fast last quarter. That indicates his overall sharpness. I call him for 2nd, but he could be the one. He has always had the talent, but steering and soundness issues have stunted his growth. He is probably as good as any of these. He needs to be saved to hit the wire at just the right time. Zeron is a cagey veteran. He can get him that trip.

ON THE ROCKS    is a late blooming prospect. He was hard used last time to get control and couldn't quite go all the way. Knowing Randy, he will bury him this time and try to move very late. That should land him 3rd or 4th. He is likely to progress up the ladder fast this winter, and change hands at some point. He is one to keep an eye on. 

 Play Against:

PAN STREET USA returns to Gillis, who raced him last year in the sire stakes . He is okay enough, but not the type I would play as a favorite in with this bunch. Bit player type in my view, and more likely to be 3rd than the winner. He stopped last time even though he got a soft half. He had that habit here last year at times as well. 

Anticipated Win Price 5-2

JULERICA starts slow, because he looks like he will blow up every time you see him. By mid race, he seems to get pacing better and kicks into high gear very late to be dangerous. I will pass on him tonight and go to others who have been good enough before and look better on the track at a better likely price.

Anticipated Win Price 2-1

The rest:

GALAGHER SEELSTER--picks up Fillion, and will be a big price, but he just doesn't show me that he can go with these for more than small cheques. He took a long time to win the level below. Maybe there will be a really cold night this winter and a short field when he finds his way. That night isn't tonight. Some knee knockers have trouble going more speed without being dangerous or hurting themselves. He could be one of those.

SINGLE WHITE SOCK- tripped out and bombed away on the field a few back, but he is more bit player hanger most nights. I see that as his fate tonight. As he was last time. 


WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

TOWER OF POWER--broke last time while on the move, and loses Jody to the favorite. I will take a watch and see approach with this one. Some of those Hoosier shippers are hard to figure and slot, and he fits that bill.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: I like the vastly improved Vital Sign here and will take his smaller win price as long as it doesn't go below my value win price. The two I took behind him can certainly beat him. Should be a competitive race between those 3, with Mac Raider in behind them with a shot if everything breaks his way.

Probable Favorite: CHEYENNE REIDER


VITAL SIGN --every now and then, a lifetime very cheap claimer find a new barn and new life. This guy seems to be one of those. His new trainer, also the owner is not getting too high on him. He won the low condition two back at bombs away odds, then put him in with these and just got in done. He comes right back, same tag and same group, maybe even a shade lighter top to bottom. He has soundness issues, but when he is good, he has a lot of grit. Top call as he is sharp and classified right.

Value Win Price 2-1 

CHEYENNE REIDER   was the fave last time and just missed. He is real hit and miss in terms of how physically ready he is to go an entire mile and be viable. Last time he was excellent. The time before he was horrid on the turn and packed it in early. Most times he stays out of it, comes very wide and late and either gets there or just misses. I will go with just misses tonight at a shorter price, but I don't view him as easy to beat. He is tough to beat at this level.

CRAFTY MASTER    had a short layoff, came back in good form, a shade sounder than before, and has been hanging around. Off the right trip, he put his nose in the mix at the tote board. He just doesn't have that winning attitude my top 2 choices have. I put him 3rd for that reason. He is good right now. He has to be better to win.

 Play Against:

none 

The rest:

MAC RAIDER--leaves very fast and might not have much company for that in this race. He is also a good sitter, so he is plausible. His grit to finish has always been in question. Therefore, I can't rate him above my top 3. He probably is just in a shade above where he should race, but they don't write a 20 claimer on this circuit. So, he does his best here,  which probably isn't good enough. 

NO SHOT

LISVINNIE--won at the bottom, but didn't look good doing it and the next two he beat are ones that find ways to lose. In with these, he is really up against it. I'd think a 15 claimer, if they start writing it, is more his class. Even then, he is no cinch winner. Not with these for me.

AMBLE OVER HANOVER- doesn't look good enough for most of these, even if he was racing steady. As it is, he is off more than two months and was racing bad then. Another who is better off in for 15. 

UFDRAGONS ROCKET- won last time at London,  coming from well behind with one late move. The horse that finished 2nd in there lost his last start at this track in an 8 claimer, and was racing lower than that before that start. No thanks.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: A very clear favorite here, and the next obvious choice is the one that the favorites driver didn't take. Tough call. 

Probable Favorite: MOHAWK WARRIOR


C L ART MAGIC --wired them last time in impressive fashion. Fillion goes to my 2nd choice, so he gets Trevor. With his leaving ability, I expect a move to the top coming out of the turn. I think he can take them all the way. 

Value Win Price 5-2

MOHAWK WARRIOR looks tough to beat in here, but even though he is a high end colt and 2nd time Moreau,  in addition to Fillion choosing him over the other one, which is somewhat an obvious choice, he seems beatable enough at the likely short price. I think he is even money or lower. I will play the other one on the price angle. They look almost even to me.

DOJEA SOLO   A new recruit for Joe C, he goes first time for him and on this track, after almost 4 weeks off. He claimed him, so he is likely tinkering. I think he can get 3rd if he is tuned up. Not a threat to the top 2. He is 18/26 in the top 2, and that merits respect. He has to step up now to show he can handle the rise from conditioned claimers to meeting high end conditioned types.


 Play Against:

none 

The rest:

ROCKINONBY-certainly has a shot tonight. He will need to do a bit more, and last time he couldn't last to the wire. Jody is back aboard over Allard. That is an upgrade on the tactical front. If he can trip him out, he's in the mix. I like others better.

SHOCK N ROCK- 2nd start back on this track, and his last was very good. But, 1 hole to 9 hole, so the trip advantage is lost. I can't see him without that. Not this week for me. There are some sharp and tough customers in here. Too tough for him in my view. 

SENIOR MARKET- moves up another level. He seems in deep with these. He didn't win with lesser ones. He has a shot if everything goes his way. Otherwise, my top plays have better form and talent than him.

NO SHOT

NEWBIE--doesn't show me enough to suggest he is anything but hunting for a late rush at 4th and 5th money tonight. 

LONGSHOT CHANCE

BRINGHOME THEBLUE--was long gone on a suspect bunch last time, and now tries proven conditioned winners with stakes experience. Anybody but Carmen, and I would have tossed him. He does have serious soundness issues and the turns are tough for him. Tougher competition puts more pressure on him he doesn't need. Pass.


WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

A MARCOU STORY--wasn't winning a level below,  but had to move up because he won elsewhere and now faces ones he doesn't seem able to go with. With his history of breaks and erratic behavior, I keep my eye on him to find a better level  and then hopefully I can rate him within that race. Pretty much no shot with these.

Race 4

Overall synopsis: Tough to be confident in any of these. I went with the one I've liked for a few weeks, who has improved overall under her trainer, and fits these well. A poor trip last time might inflate her price this time. It's a gamble type bet. In the pick 4, I'd go very deep, and maybe take an ALL.

Probable Favorite: REGALLY READY


MAPPOS MOENHAY --had a very long trip last time, but kept coming. She has improved leaps and bounds for Fuller, who is good with pacing fillies who have issues. I don't like much in here, so I can justify her based on the price they will bring and how that floats up her odds.

Value Win Price 10-1 

AFTER ALIMONY   is very much the one trick pony type. She needs the lead, without working hard to get it, or the 2 hole on one that can carry her a very long way and then a way out. In this type of class, with her tactical speed, that could play out. In with a shot, a minor one. Not facing bearcats here though. Carmen is heating up. That has to be considered. He is very streaky.

ADAYMER SEELSTER   was 2nd best to a class dropper last time and her 12-1 ML is hard to understand. Post parade is important with her. Her last two, she has looked really good on the track and has raced up to that. In the past, she has been so lame she was scratched right off the track or should have been and wasn't. She has to be seen. If she is still all good to go, she is certainly a player here. 

 Play Against:

REGALLY READY at this point in her young career, she is a class mover. She won at the bottom, then was in the pack last time a notch above this. Her win was the first of the season. I can find others in here who are going to be better value than her. I will go with them and against her. Bit player, possibly on the ticket. Not for the win.

The rest:

P L HURRICANE--has not won at the bottom, is extremely win shy period and move up against and with a few who she doesn't seem able to beat.  No thanks. Even back at the bottom she looks more like play against than play if she takes money.

WILDCAT BEAUTY- drops a shade, and need to. Her 2nd last, she was parked the entire mile. Heard and A Mac had one of those last night in the last race and she rebounded at a huge price for 2nd. Last time she stalked and hung against slightly better. I see her as 3rd or 4th, but I see a shorter price and I will pass on her. 

LONGSHOT CHANCE

BACK YARD BABY--swooped a horrid bunch at the bottom last time for a boxcar payoff. She is capable on the rise, if she is good again. She is very hit and miss. Your call. I like another better.


Race 5

Overall synopsis: A significant class edge for the one I chose. He performs, he jogs.


Probable Favorite: STORMONT WIZARD


WIN THE DAY --On talent, class and performance has a pretty big edge on these. He romped last week and McNair returns.He will make one backstretch move to the top, and if he stays trotting, clears and should trot well clear by the tote board. Top call.

Value Win Price 9-5

GRONK  has gait issues, but the trotting hopples barely hold him together for now. If that continues to work, he is in the mix to get a big piece. I don't think win it. That sort of issue lets others pass him while the driver is trying to keep him together. At some point he is just going to run again.

STORMONT WIZARD   took a lot of win money last time, but was gapping the winner most of the way. He meets that one again, but that one is erratic, as is the other likely contender. I will go against all of them, including this guy who figures to be the lukewarm fave, although not as low as last time. I think his form is declining, and I thought that before the last race as well. The overall field is weak. He can still make 2nd or 3rd and race poorly, again.

 Play Against:

MY MY HEY HEY  blew out a huge, lifetime best win last time. They don't come any more erratic than this one. Add a new driver, and leaving from the rail, and he is sucker money if he is 3-1 or less, which is likely enough.

Anticipated Win Price 3-1


The rest:

LMC MASS OAK--gapped the entire way last time, as is his habit. He would have to do a lot more to get me interested in him with some of these. Come January, if he is still going these types of miles in with soft condition types, I'd play him then. 

FREDDIE- has two slices with these, and now looks for a 3rd. If he can stay trotting, which is always a big if with him, he can get that. He is ugly to watch trot, but somehow keeps it together most of the time. I keep my eye on him. There is going to come a time this winter when he hits a soft condition and gets overbet off the program.  I am waiting for that opportunity.

NO SHOT

MUSCLES ALL OVER--makes the final because they are short of entries. Otherwise he is still 100-1 in a nw2 race.

P L ICABOD- can leave like a shot, and that gets him good trips near or on the lead. He can't last with these, post 8 makes him work harder and he will be hounded and chases if he is near the lead. He broke his maiden, but doesn't look up to the challenge of these.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

LOVE HUNTER--won the first leg by getting a 2 hole trip and tripping out. She ran last time and has a history of that sort of issue. She could go either way. Post parade is important for this type.


Race 6

Overall synopsis: I have a trip angle on one horse who will likely bring value because others will take money. Some justified, but beatable, another not justified and not proven under new circumstances.

Probable Favorite: NICKLE BAG


MAKE SOME LUCK --left out hard last time, got a shuffle, tried to find room but could not and his line looks worse than it is. I think that makes him a solid play right back if he can leave and get on Nirvana's back when he makes his move for the top. He stays at the same level and has been knocking.

Value Win Price 5-1 

NIRVANA SEELSTER  takes a drop in here and looks very tough to haul down as the probable fave or 2nd choice. I think my top choice can pick him up. He is very consistent and has shown as he has aged and matured he likes the lead and does not budge when he has it, a classic trait of his sire and many of his foals. Post 10 gave him no shot last time, but he still raced well overall, his own back half in 54.2.

VEGAS ROCKS    didnt seem to grab the track last time as the heavy chalk with very good form. I can give him a pass for that. There are some tough cookies in here. Even if he is back to razor sharp, I don't like him on top. He is pretty consistent. I give him a 3rd place call. 

 Play Against:

NICKLE BAG I'm not sold he is legit now on the comeback trail without whatever he got before. He drops another notch again. I will go against him again.Until I see him go forward, I go against. Robinson is not producing since his return. I bet for now, not for what was.

Anticipated Win Price 2-1


The rest:

ERLE DALE N--moves up off an impressive win beating off one who ran him hard at the 3/4. He cat and moused him and then opened up when he needed. These are tougher and he will have to show me he can go with them. The bloom is off the Adams rose. That angle doesn't seem as valid as last winter.

CAMAES FELLOW- has been going in the wrong direction for weeks and stays in this class. A poor showing tonight and he drops the 4k he needs for the power drop. He might be in jail tonight and I'm watching to see how he goes otherwise if he ends up where I think he does next time

HIS BOY ELROY- is so trip dependent with these types that its hard to play him when the fields are deep and he has too many to pass, in addition to possibly latching on to bad cover, which he finds himself doing a lot. He would be much better off a notch lower. When his earning allow, I will look over his chances closely then. 

LONGSHOT CHANCE

VELOCITY DRIVEN--was 2nd in this class last time against a generally weaker bunch, but has improved. He needs another notch more to take all these down. Minor shot to do that from the outside. He meet a few who can compete in the Preferred on their best day. He has never shown that type of ability.

WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

TRACK MASTER D-is consistently a bit player at this level, and is getting ready for the power drop. I watch him closely tonight so I am ready for that. With these, 5th money seems a likely result.


Race 7

Overall synopsis:  Going against the speed demon and playing the one I think will be on his back when its time to pounce.

Probable Favorite: AMERICAN ROCK


AMERICAN ROCK --drops out of nw3 into this mid condition. He won easy at the bottom, and has seemed to be much improved under Moreau's care. He draws better here and can leave a ton if needed. He will benefit from following Adkins Hanover and Fillion is likely to know exactly when to pull the trigger on that one. Top call.


Value Win Price 7-2


 Play Against:

ADKINS HANOVER as I watched him last week, I thought he might be a play this time if he dropped. But he didn't. His one monster brush will only carry him so far. At this level, he can still get picked up late. I will continue on that angle, but I'm looking to play him one level down if the price is right.

Anticipated Win Price 3-1


The rest:

CARRACCI HANOVER--won at the bottom but I have no confidence he passes anything better, which he did not last time. I liked him a bit at 2 and 3,  but as an aged horse, he has lost some lustre. He could be heading for a claimer soon. 

ROCK ME AMASTREOS- draws better, but he doesn't win much and this class has come up a shade tougher than usual. I like others far better. If and when he hits the bottom again, I will look him over. He has soundness issues that can compromise him.

NO SHOT

CAMS TUX--beat a very soft bunch on Monda night. His first win in ages. No shot with these and you are looking at boxcars if you want to take him on . I do not

WAZZUP WAZZUP- is horridly lame. I can't see him getting around clean. The night he won Phil pulled a miracle to get him around. Not so lucky last time, or the two before that. He appears to be an old warrior with too many wounds. We might see him in a 4 claimer by the spring time.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

BIG CITY JEWEL--fits nicely with these, but post is an issue here. If he gets away too far back again, coming all the way is going to be tricky. However, if Adkins comes and somebody takes him on again, that sets up for this guy at a decent price. He is a longshot to win to me, but maybe not a big price. Bad value overall to count on a trip that has to work out for him to achieve in this spot.

WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

DIALAMARA-is one to watch for signs of improvement under the care of Jackie Mo. I was watching for that last time, but he still didn't look good pacing around. I will watch again. 

D GS CAMME-had a good season back East, but the fields aren't short here and he can't dominate on the front end like he did there. I watch to see if he is good to go lower. He is over his head with these, in my view.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: I wont bother with them all here. I like 2 only for the win, and I will make the case against 3 that others might consider viable, which I don't, for the top prize.

Probable Favorite: CAJON LIGHTNING


MACH ON THE BEACH --Fillion picks the other entry, as he was faster and possibly has more upside tonight and in the future. I see it the complete opposite. I like this one tonight to get out on top, get a mild breather and outpace his stablemate to the wire in a hard fought toe to toe fight. He will be the price in all likelihood. CC gets the drive. He is a money driver when he has a live one. He has a live one here.

Value Win Price 9-5

CAJON LIGHTNING   on paper, he is the one to beat. He should be in the 3-5 range, and he isn't going to be easy to hold off. But as we saw with Aniston Seelster last night, when these types get a breather, they can pace away and win races maybe they shouldn't. That could be the case here. Or, he could be just 2nd best. Or, the best. I like him for a close 2nd. I view the top two as almost even, but a better price on my top choice.


 Play Against:

NATURESCAPE has always been cheap speed, and last time tried to get ahead but backed  away. You can use him hard leaving, and nothing can outleave him in this race if McNair wants to be done on the turn. He is smart enough to get on CC's back here and follow him. That gets him 3rd or 4th, but no better.


Anticipated Win Price 8-1

The rest:

MAJOR DAN--couldn't win a maiden at this track, and his big early speed isn't even useful against this pay grade. He takes back and hunts for a small prize, and heads into nw2 to grind out a nice winter living for his owner.

JACK REACHER--has bagged 2nd twice in the legs, but he needs to be managed off the gate and is a cut below the top 2 anyway. Possibly 3rd, if  he gets the right trip.

Race 9

Overall synopsis: I am going against the top 2 likely chalks here, one a big chalk the other the next in line who has a history of very bad behavior.

Probable Favorite: PRESCOTTS HOPE


ELLIS PARK -has been knocking for a while. He is too good to not win eventually. He has shown he can leave now, and if he can get out in the 2 hole or even find live cover up close he has a big shot.

Value Win Price 9-2

EVENIN OF PLEASURE  Fillion chooses the other entry, nevertheless, its hard not to like this one. He leaves plenty and can come back on with the trip. That always puts him in the mix.

RISE UP NOW    was impressive last time, first time Moreau. Fillion sticks with him, and he tries the top dog game here. He has a shot. He is unproven with these though. I call him 3rd. In reality, many can win this, and he is one of them.

 Play Against:

PRESCOTTS HOPE put in some iffy steps at the start last time and now has missed 3 weeks. That is enough for me to go against him. This is a very capable bunch, and he would have to be tip top to handle them. I see a big chance he is not.

Anticipated Win Price 2-1



The rest:

THUNDER STEELER--always hangs around and is capable here. I just have 3 I like more than him. He wouldn't be a shock, but I will pick from them. He would be very dangerous if he fails here and gets to drop.

DRACHAN HANOVER- tried these once and was middle of the pack. I think he will be at this level shortly, and could pop tonight, but he is another that didn't make my top 3. You will probably get a price if you like him. He needs to toughen up a bit more at this level.


Race 10

Overall synopsis: Hard to go against the Moreau bump angle here. Who knows how good this one can be gassed up with the high octane stuff. If he fails, I picked the one who shows the most otherwise.

Probable Favorite: GRIN FOR MONEY


GRIN FOR MONEY -looked reborn last time on the first time new stable in his whole career. No reason to think he can't do that again. He wasn't a slug his whole life to begin with, and these aren't any tougher than the ones he took at will last time. Top call. Moreau has built a very powerful stable at the top end of all the classes. He is just another of those.He will likely be short of my value price, so if he is, I will leave him or play my 2nd choice, if he brings higher than 4-1 as a result.

Value Win Price 8-5

CHAMPAGNE PHIL   paraded great last time, and went a long way on the lead with these. The two that took him down go to the Preferred tonight. He has a legit shot at Moreau's new boy if he regresses off the bump.

SOMEWHERE FANCY   did all he could last time but he was no match for the winner who rises up with him here. He is just about right for a rail sitting 3rd.


The rest:

BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL--doesn't win much, and he appears to be the 2nd string of Moreau's outfit in this one. I can't use him in this relatively deep field starting from the outside.


THORN IN YOUR SIDE, MACHAL JORDAN, SOUTHWIND AMAZON-all move up with the winner and 2nd horse, and look in deep with them and the others I've rated.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

PUSH BACK--walks a very tight line between being competitive one step down and in deep with these. He has nice overall speed, but not quite enough for these. Pass. 


Race 11

Overall synopsis: My choice is one I noted last time as a very live one who finished 2nd to one who dominated again last night. In essence, she won this class but finished 2nd last time. Hopefully she is a bit sounder this time. That is all it will take. I am confident Joe C took care of that issue. If he did, she is the best.

Probable Favorite: HIGH FASHION MEL


DILLY DALI -was raced for 2nd last time. And when she moved, she really paced huge, with the understanding she wasn't near or was going to beat the winner. When she passed the other one for 2nd, even under wraps, she still paced on. I can see her being one of those who goes forward. With the price that comes with her tonight, I stick with her.

Value Win Price 7-1

HIGH FASHION MEL   heads to Moreau, after some impressive efforts. That get her bet off the board here. I think she is ripe to be picked off by my top choice.

HAZMATT   gets a bridle change and a better post here. That puts her in with a shot for a minor share like this.

The rest:

CANT STOP--comes back to this circuit, but meets a tough bunch. I will watch her here. She has shown flashes before, but that was then. She meets the acid test tonight.


HAMMER DOWN-was horribly lame last time. I can't go near her. She was always iffy.  That was another level of dangerous.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

VRAKA HANOVER--has to do more with these types. She beat the level down from this, but now faces ones that don't lie down when she comes at them, including the one who beat her the last two times and now sips from the high octane pump of Moreau on top of that.

the rest are filler and have basically no shot other than to maybe sneak in for the high 5.