WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 7, 2015

Best Win Bets:
SILVER SAGE in the 2nd
KEN KAN WIN in the 5th 
ALWAYS THERE in the 6th 
DIGGIN IN in the 9th
Best Longshot Win Bets:
NEW MIRACLE in the 4th
MR LOVER in the 8th
IDEAL JET in the 10th
Best Place Bets:
VIC ROYAL LADY in the 1st
NEW MIRACLE in the 4th
ALWAYS THERE in the 6th
DIGGIN IN in the 9th
Best Show Bets: 
LISSALAS in the 2nd
NEW MIRACLE in the 4th 
CZAR SEELSTER in the 4th 
ALWAYS THERE in the 6th
Worst Win Bets:
STAR COVER in the 4th
VELOCITY HEADLIGHT in the 6th 
DONT RUSH in the 8th
BIG RICH in the 8th
SPORTS WARNING in the 9th
IWILNOTBEMACHED in the 9th
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Race 1

Overall synopsis: These types of races are tricky. Logical faves with decent form. Short prices that come with that, and outsiders who need things to go their way. Post parade and trip are very important here. I went to one who looks on the uptrend and against two others--one with a poor performing driver, the other racing back on short notice with soreness issues.

Probable Favorite: MAGICAL PUMPKIN


VICS ROYAL LADY --took her first shot at WEG last time, was flying up the rail for Trevor, and probably was the winner if they went another sixteenth. There are enough options in here this time to suggest her price stays high, although not as high as last time. She showed she can go speed with these, now she has to challenge to win the race.

Value Win Price 7-1 

PISCEAN  The horse did her part last time, and I felt was the winner if Mario had opened her up when he had the chance. He didn't, let the one on her back get too close and she picked this one off on the wire. That was a chance to score. She comes right back, but at the short price again tonight, I can't play Mario and take the chance he does it again, or this filly reverts back to her bad behavior ways. Call for 2nd.

TOWNLINE MOMMA    was first time Joe C last time, gunned out by Massey, wisely sat on Mario's back, stalked closely and didn't let her get away then just got up. She is hard not to like right back, but the price will be short again. I call her as a minor player this time. She isn't likely to get such a soft trip this time. That is usually the equalizer for this type. Massey isn't always reliable to make the right decision or get the best trip. If one of the top 2 faves run before the start, and you think that is a probable thing to bank on, that totally changes this ones chances. 

 Play Against:

MAGICAL PUMPKIN I don't like young horses off a very short turnaround, especially not trotters, nor ones who show soreness issues. I will take my chances that does her in.

Anticipated Win Price 7-5

COUNTRY PROPHET has significant gait and soundness issues, which Zeron expertly managed last time to get him around. But make no mistake, he looked even worse than he has before. He would really have to turn all that around. I don't see any evidence of that. 

Anticipated Win Price 12-1

The rest:

MACHO MASS--was out in the flow with a shot last time, but hung. He has to do more. I like others better. At some point, he is going to pop. I will wait and think that is another day.

JLS TOO HOT TAJ--is second off a layoff, and that start was okay. I can't back her in here, with a few live ones to consider. She has to do more now. Lets see how that goes.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

HALO EFFECT--draws bad again, but certainly has the talent to come late and pick them off, which she did last time. Fillion could not be hotter right now. If somehow the pace is very honest and hot, she has a shot to go by them all.  A long shot.


WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

MUSCLE ACTION--ships in with a 1 for 32 record over the last two years. That is his only lifetime win.  He will have to be seen. But from this post, and his last quarters, he would really have to step up. He is bombs away if he did get it done. I don't see it this time.

NO SHOT

PROFESSOR GORDON--drops out of the Autumn series, where he was 100-1 plus both times and raced to his odds. Post 10 only makes it easier to toss him.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: Another tough bunch to sort. The ML fave seems like a good overall play, but I am skeptical that one is worthy of taking a short price on. He could fail a few times as chalk and then pop long one cold winter night from a bad post. Not much to like behind him in here either, but I will go to a newcomer who shows upside. Can't say I'm confident in any of these.

Probable Favorite: R U MACHIN ME


SILVER SAGE --ships in for new connections, with a very stale date. However, I suspect they have had him for a couple of weeks at least, if not more, and have trained him up. They might have also made some adjustments. He was racing in stakes action in Chicago, where he held his own for some bigger purses. He has upside. Obviously has to be seen on the track. On the dams side, there is a lot of nice performers from the root mare, who was a hell of a tough race mare. That counts for something with these not so tough ones he meets here. If I 'm going to bet any Allard driven horse, its this one, as long as he passes the post parade test with me. My major concern is that this is start 17 of a 2yo season. That is not good.

Value Win Price 5-1 

R U MACHIN ME  raced better last time, but still hung with a bunch of non performers. These are softer top to bottom, but not soft enough that he can't back up if he doesn't get his way. With this post, and combined with the driver, I expect A Mac to blast and take no prisoners here. I'm not certain he can go all the way off his racelines and 1 for 21 record. Not 7-5 certain, which is about what I expect to see here.

TWIN B COMMANDER    was gapping the cinch winner last time, in a maiden. He moves up here, and he would be tough enough to take for the win in a maiden. He is capable enough to make the ticket off a ground saving trip. Fillion is likely to get him that, based on how he kept him in the whole way last time when the horse wanted out. Not for the win, but I'd use him on the tri with a shot to make that. 


The rest:

SILVERADO--is still a maiden meeting winners again. He stopped like a clock last time, although he behaved better overall. Fillion ditches him, and a new driver trying to manage this headcase is enough to me when you add in the other variables. Hard to toss anything in this race, but he is as close as it gets to that. 55 seems to be his limit right now. That isn't likely to get it done.

OBO HANOVER--is a B track shipper who starts poorly. He got it done last time, but the last quarter was very slow, as was his. He is a mid pack type here in my view. If he opened up on the field last time with his own last Q in 30.2, what does that say about the ones behind him? He will have to show me he is better than he looks. 


LONGSHOT CHANCE

PRINCESSS DIAMOND--ships in for Doug Rideout. If you have been around long enough, you would remember him as a steady Barrie and Orangeville guy back in the day , who had a few WEG horses who did well enough if they were good enough. I'm sure he has learned a few of the Northfield tricks of the trade while he has been there for more than 20 years. The qualifier was good, but he doesn't race him there against easier than he would likely meet here. Maybe he is here to be showcased and sold. If so, he wont be raced easy here. This is his first season of racing.  Could be he got hurt and he is just coming sound now. I would look him over very carefully parading. In an ideal world, I'd want to see his full warmup. I wont get that chance tonight. Post parade will have to do. If he looks okay, I'd add him on the pick tickets.

LISSILAS--is very well bred, and raced okay first time Johnson last time. Possibly he was short. He comes back on two weeks this time, suggesting some vet work and a training trip. He has potential to upset the apple cart here. He chased some tough cookies at Freehold. Who knows what this one is? For the right price, say 12-1 or higher, I'd take a shot at him if his on track appearance impresses me.

WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

JET PASSING--Ships in from Yonkers where he was soundly beaten his last two. I am only watching him for a future play against. I know him  from there watching him a few times. He is a rat. Tonight, hate him. Hoping he races just good enough, draws well next time and takes heavy action, so I can make a play on the other side.


Race 3

Overall synopsis: No secret to this one. If you can overlook the way JcS Jake performed last week at the start, and the last turn, he is a cinch to double up. I am not certain I can count on him blowing up or producing. I am tempted to just watch, and hope he gets it done again, doesn't get claimed, and Moreau jams him a 3rd time. I have a couple of options. On the fence here.

Probable Favorite: J CS JAKE


J CS JAKE --was very chancy last time, on the class drop for the cheap tag, and his habit of gate breaks. Fillion was at his best on this one, holding him together, well off the gate, then gradually moving him out towards the backside. Once he was trotting smoothly and clear of any roadblocks, he let him blast up and opened a big enough lead that he could get away with just about blowing the turn and going inside pylons. He cranked his head dead sideways, but again Fillion nursed him through that and then trotted well clear again. He is blowing up soon, for sure, but I can't go that route tonight. I will simply lay off him and the price he brings, and watch the others. The rest simply don't do enough to make him pay for his weaknesses.  As good as he looks when he is going good, you would need medical attention if you were willing to take him on at 1-5, or single him in any picks.

Probable Win Price 1-5

COLD CERTIFIED  draws much better this time, but has to rise up without winning. Since he has trotted with better in the past, that is not a big issue. It is a factor though. The one thing that he does is change the nature of the race. He is a one trick, front end pony. And is not likely to cough up the lead. If he were to try and park JcS Jake, that could set it up for another. If that one were to run early, and he gets his own way, he might last this time without the early energy he burned the last two times from the outside. 

R CHOOCHOO CHARLIE    looked good two back, dropped to this level off of that, blasted out last time then let the going away winner go, who he could not stay with. Still, a decent effort overall. His chances rest tonight, as with most of these, in the chalk blowing up on his own. That could happen. If so, he has a shot. 

The rest:

NOWUCIT NOWUDONT--isnt the soundest horse out there, but he is fast and he will tough it out when he is asked. Henrikson seems like the only one who can drive him and keep him trotting. That I get. But as a poor overall tactician, I have to pass on him tonight again. The price isn't likely to be high enough for me to assume the driver error risk.

OUR MOJO--likes to drive out into position and sit close enough to make a second move when others run the leader and fail. This post, plus a few who will also want the front or just behind it, and his penchant for being 3rd or 4th anyway at this level lead me to watch and wait for a drop down and a better post in the future.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

CRACKER ZACK--went bombs away on the field last time, and now rises up to this level. He has beat these and better before, so class is not an issue. Fillion obviously goes to Moreau's sharp and logical one, so that is a non issue. This one is so variable, he is hard to ignore, but a lot harder to like this time with the reduced odds.  I will pass on him here. That is a dangerous play.

TOTALLY RIPPED--ran well before the gate last time with the 10 hole. He got it together and finished evenly. From a better post, he is another who is dangerous, even at this level, on his best day. Just another one who benefits if the chalk blows up. That is his only shot. Can't see him taking that one on even terms. 

WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

AGGRESSIVE--was much better traveling last time. Any post but the 10 hole, and I would be all over him. I'd still be tempted to toss him in for a pick 5 play, but for the straight win, he is hard to imagine, unless a whack of them blow up.

NO SHOT

SANTO DOMINGO--rarely wins, even at the bottom. There are enough options in here to suggest he has no shot for the win. 

HIDDEN IDENTITY--draws bad and isn't doing enough even if he drew well to even beat the bottom level from a decent post, let alone this level from the 9 hole. Toss for me

Race  4

Overall synopsis: The classic class dive by the obvious favorite. He has issues however, and I wouldn't take the short price he will bring. I attempt to find something, or 2 or 3 who have a shot to beat him for the odds they will bring with him overbet...in my view.

Probable Favorite: STAR COVER


NEW MIRACLE --was one of 3 who blasted out of there in a crazy first quarter that cost them when it mattered most. He got there first , but had no choice to yield from there and didn't have enough left. However, that was a solid turnaround effort, and he is one who ditches those types and meets the rats who can hardly beat anybody. If he can pace like that again, find a 2 hole or a loose 3 hole that he doesn't have to pull from, he has a shot at the minor upset for a price. Top call, but trip is everything for this guy.

Value Win Price 12-1 

CZAR SEELSTER  was in the flow last time, but maybe didn't have the livest cover and couldn't get there in time. As a trip horse, hopefully he finds a better one of those this time. There might be some battling up front here. That helps his cause.

 Play Against:

STAR COVER takes the monster class dive here in search of something he can go with. But he has been awful for months. Based on the short price he will probably draw, I will go against him. I could see him missing the ticket entirely.

Anticipated Win Price 7-5


The rest:

HAIL THE TAXI--lots of chances. No wins yet. Could have went the No shot route, but that would be hard to justify with this bunch. Eventually, this type lucks out.

CURIOUS PHOENIX--drops down, and needs to. He isn't competitive the next level up. I will pass on him. I have no respect for his substandard trainer, and his breeding tells me he needs a trainer with better gas than he is going to get.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

ZAMBUCA GASS--is an interesting entry for the Gass man.He looks about 2 seconds short of the top end of this field, but he can leave, has been here before, and could step up. Rideau shippers can be tough to rate. They mix the fields up there quite a bit and the driving is spotty at best. I give him a shot if he is at his best tonight and he finds a lucky trip. Gassien is not shy to leave and dare you to park him out. He could change the overall nature of this race because of that.


WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

MCKINNEY--returns from Saratoga, and is in Drury's barn again. He took down this class last Monday with Cams Tux. This one has been off almost 6 weeks. He loses lasix. Your call. I want to see him once. Lets see if he is still the ignorant puller who chokes because he wont stay in the hole. I like others better for the upset.

STIMULUS SPENDING--will have to be seen. I don't know him. What I do see is a Flamboro conditioned claimer rat that draws the 10 hole on legit WEG horses. He would have to pull a 180 to even get near the ticket.

NO SHOT

STONEHOUSE PETEY--is off almost 6 weeks here, and has never showed he is anything but a marginal B track horse who is in a tough spot now that KD is closed. Can't see him in any way but for a shot at 5th if the right things go his way.

VEGAS RICH--that form, plus that post, and his search for a spot continues. No thanks.

Race 5


Overall synopsis: Very tough race to play. The only way I can find value in these races is go over each horse once and see if anything strikes me as value. Data sometimes also helps to give me a push in a direction. In the pick 4,  I'd be taking at least 6 of them. The trainer change on my winner play is the only thing I've really got to go on here. Sadly, its not like the sheep can't see that too. Value might not be there. I hope for 4-1, but that one could be 7-5 if the word is out that Ben B "solved" him.

Probable Favorite: LEXUS ROCKY


KEN KAN WIN --has to be seen. But if he is okay on the track before the race, there is no bigger upgrade for a trotter than Markle to Ben B. None I can think of. Since Mario drove him in the qualifier before he moved over, and the owner stays the same, I am guessing he saw something, and told them and his brother to take him on, and fix the issue. Very chancy, but he could daylight this bunch off that angle.

Value Win Price 4-1 

IN SECRET  couldn't race any better than he did last time to be 2nd best to one who appears to be beyond his reach. Post 9 is an issue tonight. He is finally coming around, but his grit has always been in question for me. That will be tested here if he has to come wide around the last turn. I see him coming up short, but making the ticket in some capacity.

MAGICAL REUNION    exits nw2 types in his 2nd over this track. He tried it on the front last time, but backed away. There are a few here who will make him work harder than I think he wants to for a win. JJ is likely to bury him this time and try for a late rush. That adds up to 3rd for me.

 Play Against:

JUANITAS FURY is the elephant in the room here. She continues to struggle. Will she break out like Brinkers Dream did, and Bax's charges are want to do at some point? For a short price, I will go against that chance. I don't think she will justify the short price she will bring tonight. 

Anticipated Win Price 3-1


The rest:

FATHERS AMIGA--rises up substantially in class on good form, a move to Tyrell from Robbie Mac and has a shot. I like others better. The class rise is an issue for me here. The one late move strategy might not be enough against better. 

HUBBY NUMBER ONE--beat a very suspect bunch of cheap claimers last time first off the claim for Cherwaiko, who does good with this kind of horse. Not sure he can handle the class rise. Time will tell. I will call him for bit player tonight. 

LEXUS ROCKY- meets what is relatively a softer bunch than last time. Which is good, because he was a bit player with them and this post hurts his overall chances tonight. He is steady enough, so I'd say a shot at the ticket, but more likely 4th or 5th.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

HERBIES WILDFLOWER--a second one for Rideout, who has very high earnings in the protected Indiana program, but iffy form shipping in from Dayton, where they would be very soft relative to many of these. If she somehow regained the form, she could pop on this bunch. Your call. I want to see her once in action. J Mac does well with these types. That is something to consider.


WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

LUAU HANOVER--is 6 weeks out for a new trainer from the 8 hole. Class looks about right. I will watch this time to get a handle on her. Philly shippers do well here if they are as is. This one could be ready next start. Have to watch closely here. Not for the win tonight.


NO SHOT

TWIGGYS TWICK--post 10 in this condition with Massey. No thanks.

Race 6

Overall synopsis: The very sharp on paper certain heavy chalk has major soundness issues and is a ticking time bomb. I will play for the fuse to be lit tonight and go to another who could really go forward on the trainer angle. 

Probable Favorite: VELOCITY HEADLIGHT


ALWAYS THERE --went Anna Glide, to Cory Fuller to Moreau. I told someone in private this horse was a cinch on that angle next start, which he was at Flamboro. Because of the fave and the one he beat last time, there will be tote value here. I will play him as my best bet of the night. You can't imagine what an upgrade this is. If you thought Kopas to Moreau on Grin For Money was an upgrade, this is that, times 100. He paced in 53.2 with Cory Fuller. Moreau has to be good for at least 2 seconds on top of that.

Value Win Price 6-1 

NO HABLA    is a mid pack follower type and he raced exactly that way last time. I saw nothing to change my mind last time. That could land him 3rd in a big triactor. I'd ditch him in the pick 4. I just can't see him doing enough to beat whatever is good tonight. 

 Play Against:

VELOCITY HEADLIGHT mentioned in the overall synopsis why I go against him here. 

Anticipated Win Price 4-5

MACH TWO POINT SIX is sharp enough and you wont get 8-1 this time. He seems to need the absolute perfect trip to win, and although A Mac might have pulled too early on the turn last time, in any event, he was never getting to the winner. At 7-2 or less, I will go against him and the one who beat him last time. These types can't be relied on week to week unless they are being jammed and others are afraid to take them. 

Anticipated Win Price 7-2

The rest:

DOUBLETROUBLE--I discussed last week if you want to look that up. Otherwise, he just doesn't have it anymore to go all the way by. Not with these. He should be in for 5 at London.

P L GYRO--Cal Campbell took him back out of a 5 in Flamboro, where he raced like crap. He hates to win, even with Campbell, and I will never play this horse at this track unless he shows me a change in attitude. He is 3 for 78 the last two years, and many times he had the race won and blew it.

SKY DESPERADO- ships in off the claim for Mitchell. He has poor form. Pass for me.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

COWBOY CODY--was a very risky claim, and after one win, Hall had to lay him off lame for 9 months. He comes back now, and Hall has a history of doing whatever needs to be done with this type to have them ready to go. He has a shot.  Assuming he is sound enough, is he tight enough to leave hard, take pressure and finish with some zip? He would have to. He likes the front and there are no free rides here. I will go against him tonight. He wouldn't shock me.

NO SHOT

ROYAL CANVAS--continues to be entered at this track in this class. If you can figure out why, let me know. I have no clue. 

WASHINGTON HANOVER--goes in for 10 off horrid lines and thus gets the outside. I simply cannot understand this entry. Like somebody would take him for 8 off that last race. I think he would be 30-1 from the 6 hole anyway. Not sure what Joe C's thought process here is. Wasting a start.

Race 7

Overall synopsis: A lot of capable ones in a deep field. I picked the two I liked best, but they are both very beatable on trip. You could justify a lot of these if you wanted to.

Probable Favorite: BURNIN MONEY


WILD AND CRAZY GUY --is the one I went to last time for the upset. He didn't deliver although he had every chance. He is sharp though, and misses the top tier here. That could be enough. No cinch, but this is the right kind for him based on how he has performed lately. Top call, but have to be firm on price. His leaving ability is a big asset.

Value Win Price 4-1 

FEARLESS MAN  went around last time, under zero urging the entire way. Clearly Zeron was giving him a start to get his legs. Mission accomplished. Now he gets some of the class relief he might need, but draws the outside. That is probably enough to get him beat. One of two I'd use in any exotic. He might be one more start away. I at least expect him to get tried tonight.

BURNIN MONEY    is really good right now, but likely not a legit Preferred horse. He moves down with some of those here, and avoids the classier types he might meet. As the likely lukewarm fave, I go against him for the win. He has disappointed me so many times before on the drop, I can't rely on him and would only play him at an inflated price. That isn't going to be here this time. 


The rest:

ZEUS LIGHTNING--at one time he was good enough to be a top contender in here. That was then. He seems to need the class relief to finish now. That isn't this spot. He would have to recapture what he was. I don't see it.

HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS--drops, but he is still in very deep with this bunch. He looks like a mid pack, stay on the rail type in here. He needs to go lower. That is probably the next start. Watch him tonight to see where he is at. I wont bet him in this spot. Close to a toss. 

WHITE BECOMES HER- tough spot for her. She seems better now with Lasix, but these are another level she hasn't tackled yet. I like others better. She will have to prove to me she can take some air and pass these.

CHARLIE IS A JOKER- is the part of the entry that Mario doesn't take. He is very low percentage and at this level, he doesn't seem to have the will to go by when he has a shot to do so. Pass for me. He is more plausible in my view than his stablemate, but not one I like to play if there are others who are viable. There are a few of those in here.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

BAGS FOR ALL--looked suspicious last time on the page, terrible on the track, and poor in the race. She likely will come around again, but she moves up here as it is. This is not the soft spot she had last time. Have to pass. She could turn it around, but I'd bet against it. And if fact, I am doing so.


WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

TRUE DAY DREAM--first time shipper for Henrikson, off a month=test drive.


Race 8

Overall synopsis: The favorite looks like sucker money to me for the win. He should make the ticket, but I wouldn't take his short price. I hate the likely 2nd choice in the betting. I'd be very tempted to leave them both off a pick 3 and take 4 or 5 of the others I like and pivot around that play.

Probable Favorite: DONT RUSH


MR LOVER --was moving better last time and showed it when A Mac asked him to pick it up. Back half in 56 would probably take this bunch if he can get up a few lengths closer. The better post will hopefully help that cause. I need to see post parade to determine race night soundness. If he passes that test, top call for a bit of a price.

Value Win Price 8-1 

MYSTERY BET  has put two good ones together back to back. He should have passed the winner last time, but couldn't. That is troubling. It happens. He is in the mix. The top call has issues and could blow up. My 3rd choice has suspect variables that might compromise his chances. This guy has his problems too. But, he can really go when he goes and is in top shape. Tough call type of race.

DONT RUSH    probably was chasing a level that was beyond him after he scored the big money in the Gold Superfinal. Because of that, possibly, he started to make breaks. After a short rest, Jones handled him and blew out in a qualifier in 55 over a brutal bunch which had very cheap claimers in behind him. Basically a training mile to get back qualified and show some form to build off of. I might suspect he will be handled carefully enough tonight to get beat. If he can stay trotting, I list him for 3rd as the beaten favorite. 

 Play Against:

BIG RICH the likely 2nd betting choice, he was on the run last time well before the start,  actually got back trotting, caught the gate, gunned to the top, and even though he looked iffy on the last turn, turned away a noted legit hard closer right off his wheel. That will get him way overbet this time, and he has a history of stopping. That was before Moreau, but its still his history. I will go against him here. I am on record that I have no respect for this horse. I'm not jumping that ship of thought. Drury to Fillion will only drive the price down. It's not out of the question that he goes off the fave.

Anticipated Win Price 2-1


The rest:

RAMAS LAST SON--just missed last time. He is really hit and miss. I will go to miss this time. 

GRANA PADANNO--was flying late last time, after a month off and a bad post. Mario takes back over, and his ML is ludicrous. He could be 5-1. I could have put him in my top 3. Mario was the difference maker for me.  

WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

STORMONT KATE--has seemed to hit the wall with these types. I can't see her being dangerous tonight, and will keep my eye on her. A huge drop is coming. Need to know how she is before that happens.

COVERT OPERATIVE--ran before the start last time and was never in the race. I keep my eye on him. He is going to come around at some point.


NO SHOT

RAMZAN--got qualified at Rideau after a few months off. This horse has always been a loon.  I can't see any way  this horse wins this race. He will be lucky to hit the backside trotting.

Race 9

Overall synopsis: Kind of high on my top choice in this race. He impressed me quite a bit in how he stepped up in his 2nd start for Weller. I am not impressed with the next 3 logical choices. That means I see lots of value in my top play.

Probable Favorite: SPORTS WARNING


DIGGIN IN --really stepped up last time, and I can't go against him here. He meets the one he just lost to then, but draws inside this time, while that one goes the other way and isn't likely to get on his back when he makes front. After those two, its pretty thin here. Top call. He might be the post time fave. Depends on how high the bettors are on Mario's one. I know that many thought he would blow by this guy last time. If they love him that much, price might be there on this one.

Value Win Price 2-1 

TYLERS BEACH BOY  is first time Nixon, after a sharp qualifier, off a layoff, and then another month off. That is a warning sign, and last week a similar horse bombed when the real pacing got done for that connection. Jody drives here, and he does well for Nixon. The board might give you an indication of what to think tonight. I think he has a shot, but its guesswork with this type. If ever a training report would be valuable, its on this one. He has the speed. Is he fit? Is he right? I don't know.

 Play Against:

SPORTS WARNING appears to be in with a similar bunch that he beat last time, but in fact is meeting winners, where the last group were mostly maidens or ones that won out of town and wouldn't win a maiden at this track. One he meets again here went a long way with this guy on his back. He didn't blow by that one when he should have. I see him as sucker money, considering the awful way he travels. 

Anticipated Win Price 6-5

IWILLNOTBEMACHED looked terrible on the track last time, and then let the rat or non winning rat go right by him with ease. He is not much stock. Pass for me against a much tougher bunch here.

Anticipated Win Price 9-2

The rest:

LONGSHOT CHANCE

SANTANNA STAR--was off a while prior to his last.  Which was an okay effort. For me, the jury is still out. You can read why if you look up my comment last week. He will have to be better here. Randy really used him hard early last time. I give him a pass for not finishing up then. Now, no excuse.


WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

THOUGHTYOUDLIKEIT--looks like a very nice prospest. He is almost 4 but has barely raced. He won first out, but was very green doing it. He then missed more time, and based on his qualifier, is well short of this bunch for the win. I watch once. He'd be a big longshot in my view tonight. The two behind him at the wire last time are very marginal at this point. That doesn't bode well for him being tight enough to either fend off or go by horses with more experience, fitness level and speed to this point. 

NO SHOT

EVERGREEN ARTIST-is rat city. I figure him for an 8 claimer. You will see him in that once Joe C doesn't have anything to go in that class. Since he is here, and needs to race , Massey will get him around and try to get a small cheque. He probably wont get that either.

GIOVANNI--is over his head in here. I'd have to see a lot more to put him in the mix with this group.

STATURE SEELSTER--changed trainers for some reason last time and gave it up at London. Post 9 with these, I can't see him doing much damage. Back inside, in a conditioned claimer I could consider him.

Race 10

Overall synopsis: Three very legit options here, and a few who also have a shot if things really go there way. I play away from the probable favorite for one I think will wake up tonight when the time comes.

Probable Favorite: IDOLE DUHARAS


IDEAL JET --my top call on the class drop angle. The pace might also favor him. He has a preferred line at the bottom of the page where he got 4th. Look at the ones that have been beating him. They are all 1-9 in here. He must get away closer to the pace, at least a bit. If he can make the last turn only down 5, he can mow these down. 

Value Win Price 5-1 

IDOLE DUHARAS  is very sharp, and tries to come right back for Carmen.  I think he can go down. But he wont go down easy. He tries hard every time and has a winning attitude. I don't like what I think will be a short price here. Since he is likely to get claimed, Drury will be sending him. That might get him beat if something legit can run at him. I play on that angle.

ANDREIOS KARDIA    has upset potential in with a bunch like this. He is a noted last closer who has always been way better on the big track. I could see him passing them all, and being beside my top choice as they come to the line together. He'd be a price play in here.


The rest:

UF BETTORS HANOVER--moves inside, which helps his cause. He still doesn't do quite enough for me to list him for the win. He could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th, but I like a few just a bit better than him for the win. Scott West can make them go. That has to be respected. 

WIN ONE SOON--mid pack, trip following type. Loses Fillion on the Moreau angle. I call him for mid pack again. He was all out to get 3rd last week. I like others better.

THEPANINSULAHOTEL- is declining rapidly and wont even take money this time. He has seen better days. Eventually he will click in this winter. I might not have him. I have no idea when that might be. If I could watch him warm up and note when he is better some week, I might be able to detect it. Without that, is a total guessing game. He is bearing in just about every race now.

LONGSHOT CHANCE

FRESH N FAST--3rd start Moreau, he has a fast mark last year at the Meadowlands. He is racing okay, and the Moreau/Fillion angle means he gets overbet. Pass for me. The company he has kept at Flamboro does not impress me against some of these. He will have to prove me wrong.

WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY

TOUCH OF THE PAST-newcomer was racing in a 5 claimer series at Hoosier and got the big prize in the richer final. Still, he is a 5 claimer meeting some in here who can go at the mid level on this circuit. Hard to see how he can do with those. First time Gillis, I give him an outside shot if he can do something with him. This is the kind Gillis used to make a great living off.

MR YOKASSIPPI--hung last time when A Mac gave him every chance to go forward.  I still like him to be much better than he has been before, but this spot isn't good for him to do that. I watch this time. He burned me last week on the longshot angle.

NO SHOT

MONTE CRISTO--as no shot types go, he is the king of the castle.