WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 28, 2016

RACE 1

1 Shes a Maniac was not nearly as good last week as she was the week before. Being a cheap claimer who runs in bad on the turns, that is to be expected. That doesn't mean she can't turn it right back around. She had the rail last week, and does so again. She was right up in the pocket, following the winner with that one being tortured by the 10 horse, but that did not help her cause when there was room to go forward. I have to see her. I'm inclined to go price shopping elsewhere. The shelf life on one of Gilmours is usually short, and she is already well past that considering how good she was for a few weeks up to last week, where she wasn't.

2 Nine Days is the very durable type. She was brought to this track last winter as well when her form was good and was able to pick up small slices in short fields. She moves up for this go around, and she just has never showed the overall speed needed to compete at this track. Her last quarters are not good enough.

3 Gia Diamond was her usual self last time, rolling on the last turn like she was large, then hanging badly before the tote board like she was at the wrong track and in a class above where she can do. No thanks, even if she parades like a bearcat.

4 Keystone Samurai picks up lasix for the first time, a strange thing to try with a mare her age.

She tried these 2 back but was not competitive, although she can keep up with the pack and pace in 55. She is almost a month off now. Her bad luck that KD doesn't go year round like they used to. She could make a good buck showing up every week there.

5 Fire Watch was saved by Cullen last week in a clever steer and came up the rail to get 4th money. I could see where she might be one of the ones in here that doesn't look like much but gets it done as others who are more logical falter. I see her as a bit player type overall, but tonight she might be value. Depends on what type of price I see on the board. I'd be looking for 8-1.

6 Tigra Seelster is a proven winner at this track for Fellows when she is in good form and draws a favorable post, as she does tonight. She shows up after wiring a decent bunch at Flamboro in fast time. You can make a decent case for her tonight, and as she has serious lameness issues, she will have to be seen. If she passes that test in my view, she is likely to be the one I go to.

7 T R Lexus Cam has been raced over her head at the B tracks with predictable results. That appears to have been to protect from losing her when she was sharp and winning at a level just below this at Flamboro. She wins a lot of races, but does that at the B tracks, because generally her final quarters arent good enough to go with contenders at this track.

8 Lady Jen had every chance and break to win last week, but she did not. The leader was ripe for the taking and Phil sent her after that one, 3 wide, plugs pulled and she should have looped her and paced away. They walked home, but she walked slower. This is a fairly weak bunch, and she is likely to take heavy money, could be the fave or close to it. I'm not impressed and I'm likely to leave her off my final ticket and roll the dice with some price value on others who aren't real fancy either but will bring me a better windfall if the step up.

9 Moremunkybusiness is 3 for 74 and draws the 9 hole here as she ships back in with a price tag this time. Her 51.3 record jumps out at you when you look this bunch over, but that was with a different trainer when she was at the top of her game career wise. That was then. This trainer is 4 for 70 on the year, mostly racing at the B tracks, where he should do better if he has stock like this to play with.

10 Twin B Inspiring takes a big class drop to meet these, and gets the 10 hole for taking the high tag. Plante owns this one, but he cant be bothered showing up tonight. I doubt Zeron blasts her out of there like he would have. I'd give her a big shot if she takes the lower tag next week and draws in the middle of the car. She is very brave if she gets control. She is very pea hearted if she doesn't.

RACE 2

1 Vital Sign draws the rail for the 2nd consecutive start. He stayed in the entire way last time, and traveled sounder than the time before. He was behind one who wasn't doing enough, and appeared trapped. But when free, he was outpaced in the 2nd tier by many who would not be competitive with most of these. He isn't impossible if he turns it around, which he has done in the past with little to no warning. I have to see him parade. If he were to look live, or smooth, or both, I could be persuaded to take a price and shot with him. He'd certainly have to be at least 10-1 to make me take cash out of my pocket.

2 Lisvinnie  took a different approach last week, as he laid completely off a hot pace, moved late, picked up live cover and simply tipped when needed on that and sailed by all of them, with the only challengers never gaining on him. If..and this is a big if with his history, he holds his soundness, which he appears to be doing, even looking sounder than when he was winning a notch higher in the summer, he would have a big edge on these. Phil takes Montini's on the class rise, so JJ gets the call here. No problem for me on that 1 for 1 trade.

3 Never Been Told went to the top last week and was never in danger, winning by as much as he needed to and well in hand. He moves up again to face tougher, and Phil takes him over another he has won with. That is curious. This will be the stiffer test. Last week, he had nothing he couldn't handle. He is the likely favorite or close to it.

4 Waltzking Hanover was put on a mission by Cullen last time, but he gave it up pretty easily when the flow came to him. He eeked out 5th, but he didn't have many live ones behind him, nor did he keep up with the ones going by him either, none of whom are known bearcats relative to this class other than the winner, who he meets again.

5 Machapelo didn't have much pace last week, was gapping and well beaten. He is hard to back based on what you see on the page, and physically, his fitness to compete is also in question.

6 Chosen Hombre loses Fillion as he is away. Gains Trevor. Even trade for this type. He seemed to get caught in near the back field when the ones that beat him moved out, but even still, he paced up for 4th, no danger to the top 3, 2 of whom he meets again. He was also bearing out bad at the wire. He isn't impossible if Henry can get him to leave a bit better. That hasn't been his history though. Looks like a bit player to me.

7 New York Nightmare pulled 1st up last week and got the lick and slash treatment when he gave his usual half try when pulled. With some, that works. As long as you whack him, he will go. Its a legit way to drive him, and they all do. He did go forward, and paced on to the wire, but was 2nd best to the winner, who he meets again. He is possible if that one isn't as good as he was last week.

RACE 3

1 Warrawee Proton was good enough to just grind out there gradually and pass the leader on his overall speed edge when it mattered. Clearly Fillion drove him with that in mind. The only way he was losing that race is if he beat himself, which he is prone to do when he isn't a winning machine, which he currently is and he has been a few times this year. Moreau rented him for one start, got the win, and returned him to the pack of willing buyers, of which Coulter won the 6 way shake. Tonight he is back in for the price, and will have many to try and bag him again. He has been through Moreau and Fine, and others, and that is an issue for me. His penchant for making breaks is another, the rail is another, and a new driver another, although I like Scott Coulter and he is a solid driver who I would have no trouble backing on any horse. He'd have to be a very short price here, and I will take my chances against him and not only not touch him for the win, but leave him off any pick 5 tickets I play, if I decide to play one. He looks ripe to go down.

2 Summajestic fired out for the lead at Flamboro last time at 3-5 and cut it to the half. He didn't look good the entire time he was on the front, very sore and wonky behind. Like most of his breed, when that happens, he shifts to the front to compensate, and gets crossed up, and will take a bad step and jump it off, which he did. He did the same exact thing at 1-9 three back, but lasted to the last turn that night, although he looked exactly the same the entire way that night as he did last time. I don't see how he gets around with these when there is any pressure put on him.

3 Northern City Girl got a new driver last time and ran. She was clearly lame the entire way and could not be held together, even though she was under no pressure, gapping the entire way, and could have just followed along the rest of the way well back and stayed at it. With the regular pilot back on for the qualifier, she got around clean and has since been moved to Weller, who jams her right in the bottom claimer. She will have to be seen. I can't touch her if she shows any of that lameness behind. I don't suspect Weller can do anything about that, and she could easily take off running when the gate speeds away.

4 See R Chin Win was nowhere near the top 4 last time when they hit the wire, and those weren't an impressive bunch, relative to a few others in here. She was 50-1 and went around along the rail, and had no zip at all, outstaggering the backfield to hold 5th money. I can't back her the way she races.

5 Girl Drama had the winners live cover last time, but couldn't stick with him, nor pass the winded leader. Cullen took her, and he will try to do what others haven't been able to.....make her go when she isn't in the barn of Dagfin. Her slow starts dig holes for her as a rule, and maybe Cullen tries to fire her out of there. She likely runs in that scenario, but you never know. I will go elsewhere looking for an upset.

6 Easy Virtue ran on her own last time going towards the first turn and looked horrid and lame. Cannot go near this one at all.

7 Cracker Zack wired a similar bunch 2 back and Ryan took him, stepped him up, where he wouldn't do, so he is putting him right back in for that tag and draws a decent post to send him right out, assuming he makes the gate and is trotting. Big if factor for him. If he does, he could wire this bunch and not have to work too hard to do it. He has to be seen. He is very variable. No Mystery Bet's or Covert Operative's in this race.

8 Blush and Crush backed away off a soft trip last time, and gets a tougher post here. She has shown in the past she will step up when you least expect it, and Allard is not above injecting every joint and tuning her up. I could make a case that she is the longshot you try in this race if you don't want to rely on the two faves or the 10 horse. I want to see how she parades. She is viable if I like what I see. Its a risky play with her type.

9 Demand an Answer tried to wire them from a good post last time, and took them all the way, but for the chalk who mowed him down easily when he wanted to step up the pressure. From a post like this he was no factor. I expect him to be some sort of impact player on whatever goes on here, but I cant see him getting home first with the post disadvantage he has and his low win percentage overall.

10 Alacrity trotted a decent mile on a cold and windy night when most of the last quarters were slow and the front was where you wanted to be. To his credit, he ground the leader into submission, mostly on talent. He was okay enough, but he now has to take on the rail horse and do it from the 10 hole. He still looks viable, but I'd think there is one in this race who will make him pay for the hole he has to start from. He has a shot if the likely suspects blow up, which seems a decent probability.

RACE 4

1 Cs Eye Is another of Weller's who will race on very short rest, as that is something he is doing with many of them, mostly the cheaper ones. It worked out on Saturday with Dreamy Fella. I generally dont like that type of angle, but its worked for him. He was double entered before he raced on Thursday. I suppose Weller thought he might win that and wanted to double dip. It didn't work out that way, as having the rail, he left hard, but had to let one go, then another went for the lead and Henry is smart enough to know you don't pull first up with this one. He stayed in, and had to wait a long time to get back out around the leader who was all done on the turn. He did go forward and pace with the pack. Another rail start, but he has a shot if a better trip works out. He didn't look like that race took much out of him. These are very soft and the type he might try a retake down the backside and deploy kamikaze tactics as he has before. Not sure he can last with a couple of these, but its possible. Weller appears to have the new shipment of high octane in the tack trunk, based on what we saw Saturday night.

2 Edward Teach picks up another new driver, his 7th in 7 starts. He is pretty easy to drive, so that is no worry. I like his form and his style, although he does seem a shade short in the last bit of the mile every time. That is not a big deal in with this bunch. This will be his 3rd start for Puddy. He was piked by Henry in start 1, parked the mile and kept at it a very long way. Last time, he left out but stayed in, moved mid race and paced home evenly, up for 3rd under heavy urging. He shows signs of popping and the post is favorable. Shot for a price.

3 Mach It Big had a soft rail trip last time, but showed little and did nothing in the lane but tag along. He is a slow leaver these days and that goes against the bias of this track. Looks like a bit player but he pops every now and then when he remembers what he once was.  

4 They Call Me Gordy has a new trainer off the layoff and this is his 3rd start back for him. He is ofer on the year and has one effective style, which is one that favors him on this track. He can leave and follow if he finds a live friend to block the wind for him. He was given that trip last time, but the one he was following is a known stopper who was a big longshot, so he was forced to pop pocket, made the lead, but the fractions were hot and he was immediately attacked by Aslan, who ground him down and then he packed it in in the lane. I can give him a pass on that because it was only his 2nd off the layoff and he didn't get the trip he likes, and needs. He has a shot to make the ticket if he gets more favorable terms. He doesn't win much, he is hard to take on top. Stranger things have happened in this class though. He has made the ticket in almost half his starts, most of those at this track. 

5 Needlecrest gets the class relief he needs. He had every chance to get a cheque last week, but in spite of two of them blowing up and another blowing his load to the half, he couldn't pick up money off a soft following trip. I'm not sold this is enough relief for him as is. I will likely go to others.

6 Prince Clyde takes the big class drop, which has worked for him before and is something he relies on at this stage in his career to earn his connections a steady buck. He grinds out 50k a year or so doing that. The names of those who have beaten him lately, Prescotts Hope, Erle Dale, Easy Lover Hanover, Vegas Rocks, would all daylight this bunch if they would happen to be allowed to race in this class. He didn't do much last week, but he was also off a month and had been sick. I can give him a pass for that. Its hard to know if he was racing bad, or was just so far over his head he had no shot. That is the rub when one like this hits this class with the variables he brings. He was clearly going all he could go last time and was gapping badly in the lane. I will likely go away from him if he takes favorite money, which he could. He is the 2-1 ML choice. He has spotty form.

7 Levy Taylore is one of those dangerous shippers that you see on every card who you must look over carefully wherever he raced. Luckily, in these times, that is just a race replay click away. His last was his first start in two months, and he gapped out most of the way from a 2 hole start, and had little to no pace in the lane with a clear path to go forward. I will have to watch him once to see if he was just short last week. He doesn't look like a dangerous shipper to me.

8 Every Day looks like a borderline 8 claimer to me. He was one of many most times in the Maritimes, and with post 8 tonight added to the mix, I don't view him as legit against these. He didn't get a cheque in this class last week when he had every chance to do so. I will pass on him. Might be a good 8 throughout the winter if Cullen goes that route or maybe he is aiming him at the nw class at the B tracks. That might work for him if he draws inside there.

9 Hail the Taxi gets post 9 off a mini layoff. He is well known to find ways to lose, even when he looks viable and a contender. Tonight, he looks like neither.

10 Resistance Futile comes off more than a year off, and he has had gaps like that before, as he has obvious issues if you take note of his on track appearance over the years. He gets the trainers son for the return, with I'm sure orders to go easy on him from this post. You dont wait a year on a nice horse like this to gut him from this post first start back. He certainly can take them next time though if he shows he is sound and fit, and draws 8 hole or inside that. Talent has never been in question with this one.

RACE 5

1 Stan the Man has won 3 of his last 4, the last one at this class when he wired them on a night when that was a pretty good tactic. The cheap 2nd quarter is very much this horses best friend, as it is with most of this kind of mid level horse. When he was pushed harder in the one he lost, he gave it up late. Post 1 probably negates a shot at the top and control this time. He has had a nice run bagging 25k in his last 5 starts, starting out at the bottom class and landing in this one. He is a half brother to a whack of really good ones, and that shows itself when he gets the right variables to lean on that. He is no champion, like those ones, but he has ability. I likely go to others, but he isn't impossible and might be one to add to the pick 4.

2 Its Huw You Know kept it together and was in the mix last time. He seems to be able to do that if he behaves. He doesn't win much, but he hangs around and is the type to win 3 or 4 a year if he gets 30 starts at your track. He is a big rangy type with a nice stride and a willing attitude.

3 Mystery Bet turned the handicappers on their heads last time by blasting out and going down the road, a never in danger eased up winner. First time any of us have seen him try that style. He has to move up here, but he is capable of that if he holds the form and maybe deploys the forward move off the gate. He has never been known as consistent. I will have to see how he looks parading. He tips his hand with how sound he is...or isn't. 

 4 Olympic Son doubled up last time, and as one who can win the Preferred when he is right, this class is his for the taking again. He was driven perfectly last week, and he just sat outside the leader who he had to know would give it up in the lane and took his time, while the only legit threat was mired in traffic and couldn't reach him. He has become much more tactical and less of a speed demon. That works to his favor now as he was never much the best to deploy that at the high end of the class scale.

5 Exemplar has missed almost 4 weeks now. No Trevor or Fillion available. so Per will handle him. Of course he knows him. Not sure what to expect. Have to see him. I'm inclined to toss him for tonight.

6 Wild and Crazy Guy gets some class relief after he tackled the best on the circuit last time and was all done at the 3/4 pole. He was bearing in bad coming out of the turn, and I find when he gets that way, he will tail off fast class wise, even on a drop. I backed him last week because he had a troubled trip the time before, but I will avoid him now. He will come back around. He always does. I will monitor his on track appearance for signs I should hop back about the bus.

7 P L Hercules wired them at the bottom, and now steps back up two levels. He has not shown he can handle that and isn't likely to have complete control this time. I don't think he is viable tonight considering the competition.

8 Cash for Gold was away poorly last week then on terrible cover which cost him a few lengths, which might have cost him the win. In any event, he was live when it mattered. I could see him turning the tables on that one tonight for a decent price. He remains at the mercy of the pace and traffic flow. That is the risk you accept when you play him.

9 Charlie Is a Joker draws poorly again and is likely to start slowly again. This doesn't look like a good spot for him. He looks like one who will be dropping a line in a couple of starts and taking a shot at the bottom end ones. I will watch him to see what his status is heading into that if it plays out that way.

10 Catch the Dream was not traveling well again last time and Phil babied him away this time, sitting last and coming late to pick up a small cheque. I have trouble going near him now until I see more confidence in his trotting steadiness from the driver. I will watch for that as he has to probably duck from the 10 hole.

RACE 6

 

Down to a 6 horse field with the scratch. That can favor two who like the top but have to be rated for any shot to outpace the backfield in the lane. If he somehow works out a 2 hole trip in this short field, he has a shot to save his one explosive move for the end. Contenders. Which of those two do you choose?

1 York Seelster had post 9 last week off a layoff, and had to take back. Not his preferred style. He did pace up for 4th, and J Mac sticks with him over Des's horse.

2 Jenkins Creek has looked lame but game for weeks, but last week he just couldn't withstand the pain and blew up when he looked to have a shot to take it all. I think this level stings him and I will likely have to pass on him. We shall see what he is like when he moves back down. He is not wearing well and the sum of all the hard miles are catching up with him.

4 A Boy Named Suuzz blasted out and paid the price for that last time late. He needs the lead, so it was worth taking a shot. From this post, with the nature of the form and soundness of many of these, if the price were right, I'd be all over him. I'd be looking for something in the 10-1 range. That seems possible with the outside ones likely to take serious money and Carmen's one drawing inside this week off a decent effort.

5 Panedictine had every possible variable go his way last time and he took advantage to blow up the tote board. I wouldn't expect that to repeat itself. He is a contender, but low percentage winner at this level.

6 Lonewolf Currier has given every indication he simply does not want to race anymore. He balks at coming onto the track. At times he tries to turn back and go to the paddock. Last time, He wouldn't turn to the gate, and when he was forced to, he did spinarounds trying to avoid it. When pushed, he tried to kick JJ out of the bike, then needed the outrider to get off her horse to lead him, and still wasn't very interested. He was made to race, and decided that the pain was too much on the last turn, getting very steppy and rocky before he completely blew up. He was taken from that contest. He will have to be seen. Unless I see an attitude adjustment, which is possible but unlikely, I can take a total pass on him and let him beat me if I'm wrong. He was once a high end horse. That was then. He has little upside left.

7 Par Intended isnt sound. but as mentioned previously, its who he is. He had the lead last time, but he was held up on the turn getting there and picked off by another. A solid effort, which is pretty much what you get from him every time. 

RACE 7

Mixed bag here. Short to the point comments. Not inclined to even play this race unless something of value jumps off the screen for me in the post parade. I find I have trouble cashing these bottom claimers at this track.

1 Drake class drop, get the rail, likes to follow, possible if the flow goes his way. Consistent.

2 Intended Style lower tag, better post, yo yo form of late, has to be seen on the track to rate who he is tonight. Likely to take money on the variables.

4 Light Foot Rd has been horrible for Fuller, but was slightly better with a better post. I'm inclined to go to others if I play at all.

5 Raging Fingers is one Cullen wants to keep. He knows he is solid to make money. But, he has to be tagged to do so. Either way, claim in or not tonight, he is sending him. For better or worse.

6 Cundalini was one of many that was outpaced by the winner last week, and he even lost his on the ticket position.

7 Stimulus Spending lost JJ to a scratched horse. I find it hard to play this one with how he appears on the track most times. His slow starts dig him holes he doesn't dig out of pretty much every time.

8 Gunpowder takes the higher tag and gets the 8 hole for that. Can't see it.

9 Give Em Heck drops down but takes the high tag and gets a bad post for the style he likes. Hard to like when he goes against his own bias.

10 Velocity Headlight has missed 6 weeks and had horrid form. Takes the 10 hole. What can you say when you see that?

RACE 8

1 Hilarious Hero had every chance last time to break the goose egg. Didn't. Starting from the rail digs him a big hole unless a whole bunch run and scatter and he just floats out by attrition.

2 J N Ryder is what he is. We all know what that is. Not the winner.

3 Grego I dont see anything to suggest the post improvement will matter. He will have to prove me wrong. He doesn't show speed.

4 Pick Up the Tab debuts for Carmen, off very suspicious lines, from a trainer who is very good with trotters. Obviously, I have to see him parade, and hopefully see him trot fast for a piece in that parade. He leads me to think this race is not very playable because he can go either way. Curious to see what odds he brings.

5 Absolut Seelster beat these from the 10 hole last time and looks to double up from the middle of the car. I don't know if I want 4-5 on him, nor risk a single on him, although he looks like value for the price and a decent single based on the competition and his starting slot. Tough race to play when you have to latch onto these types.

6 Zorgwijk Parkhill I see nothing to suggest he has any shot whatsoever.

7 The Power of Many was okay last time. He meets that winner here again, and his goose egg is intact and hard to overlook. I suppose he could be the one if the 5 blows up early.

8 Pampered in Pink have not liked what I've seen from her overall. I think she won when she could, but she has issues. I will watch to see if they resolve. Until then, she is a poor play to go near.

10 Profound Patience is really up against it on form and post. Not impossible but hard to like unless she completely reverses her bad form to the good form she had earlier in the year. That is always possible.

RACE 9

1 Youre Majestic loses JJ to the newcomer. She trotted a strong mile to be 3rd in her first try with these. She has worked her way up over the summer and late fall, and seems legit with these. However, she is a mare facing tough males, and tonight, she will draw the rail. I'd have to think this isn't the best spot for her to take them down, if she is capable of that. The jury is out on that for now, and Mario is a step down from JJ percentage wise. I will likely watch her. She seems as good now as she has ever been. On her best day, from the right trip, she probably could win tonight. Its unlikely it plays out that way.

2 Fearless Man got the tightener he needed last time, and might have even made the ticket if he got out of a tough spot on the last turn. When he shook loose, the two outside him were fully rolling and had more momentum than him. He went with them, but couldn't quite go by them. Zeron, realizing that, eased up on him and took 5th money. The goal was to get him ready for a better effort. He has handled these before when he is rested then tuned up. One more? I don't know. I think he is ready to go tonight. I have to see him parade and see what kind of price he will bring. There is a lot of good form in this field.

3 Windsun Revenge had every chance to make good on the chalk players confidence in him that he would duplicate what he has done lately, and more specifically what he did the time before in the BC final. He gave it a good try, but after leaving a bit, and then backstretch brushing to the top for control, he didn't have much gusto when P Mac asked him to pick it up as he saw the winner coming to him, and blowing by him. I can give him a pass on that race, for the reasons I mentioned last week when I listed him as a play against. I will have to see what he looks like parading this week. I'm on the fence and price will determine play for me. I don't see him as short price material, but of course, he has a shot based on how he has raced in the fall.

4 Rubber Duck got a slick steer last time, as he was up against it from a rail start. He let the field go, and was angled out when Trevor pulled and followed his cover right to the lane, but couldn't stick with him and also was not able to fend off another for 3rd. Overall, it was a good effort. He still seems to need to adapt to these, but he is doing that, in stages. He has a shot from this post.

5 Abc Muscles Boy ships in for Allard of a mid level win at Pocono. Allard has not been lighting it up since the meet started. JJ picks this one, for whatever reason. He looks overmatched on paper against these. I have to see him. I dont really know him at all. Allard's charges can be very variable and the range of what you see is wide.

6 Intimidate loses Fillion as he is away. This one had every chance last time, but while he left out early then yielded and got a breather, when he pulled around a gapper, he went backwards himself. At this point in his career, he shows up one week and looks like his old self, then comes right back and looks like an old warrior who has the scars of war on his old tired body. He looks in tough tonight with most of the same ones, and one who will be tighter and likely blasting to gain a position he didn't have to fight him for last week. Pass on him this time.

7 Il Sogno Dream used his class edge to mow down the chalky leader and pull away from anything else that was behind him when he came to him. He is the type that can get on a roll. I want to see how he looks on the track and what type of price he is going to bring. He doesn't always show up. He can tip that in how he travels in the post parade. I will make that call when I see how he looks.

RACE 10

I'd for sure need 5 for the late pick 4 here. Any of those could be the one if things go their way. Not a race I'd short in that play.

1 Shooter Inthecreek new horse for Moreau that comes in from Indiana off a fast win on a very fast track against bottom end conditioned claimers. Those are always hard to rate when you don't know how they will adapt. Some become Diggin In, others end up at Flamboro in the same conditioned claimers they came from in the States. He has to be seen on the track.

2 Awesomeness gets new conections and a new driver. He is likely to take monster chalk money. I'm not certain that is a value play here. He has beat horses with issues or weak talent to this stage. I think he will be a nice horse into next year, but he is still very much a young green colt and we know how Randy drives those at this stage of their development.

3 Give Em Back ships in from London with just 2 lifetime wins as he is almost a 5yo. Both of those wins came at Sarnia, which has soft and short fields for the locals to save them from having to ship and face tough competition. I don't like his form, but I will look him over when he parades. I've never seen him before.

4 Deadly Action is the wildcard in this bunch. Randy didn't take him over the 2 horse, and he gets Mario. He tried the Metro and was 2nd in the Dream Maker final, after winning a leg. He has a lame pedigree and I will have to see how he is holding up with that in mind. He comes off a nice break, but must not be thought of highly if they aren't saving him for the big money next year. He had a nice one behind him in the qualifier. That is to his credit, but not significant enough without seeing what he looks like tonight first. He is obviously possible if he is right. He has some aged ones to tackle here. That is always a negative. Must be a late closer he is aiming for.

5 Whatashowinontario bombed out for Carmen and now comes back for Snowden. The horse has upside when he is good. He isn't usually very good, but has good nights when he puts it together. The 3 he was behind in his qualifier do not inspire confidence when he led them into the stretch off a soft half. I can't back him tonight.

6 Home James needed every break last week to save 3rd. That does not inspire me to go back to him, as I did last week. He looks like one who is headed for a conditioned claimer.

7 Frontier Seelster took some free money last time at Flamboro. Why not if they are going to let you have it. He has a world of talent, but could not be greener than he has appeared to be on the track to this point. He paced a back half in 54.1 on October 24th and was almost dangerous in tight with horses. That is the kind of horsepower under the hood. As long as the tires stay on the road and the brakes work when they are needed. He has to be watched.

8 Senior K Had tough luck in both the Autumn final and 2nd leg. Under the right circumstances, he can be a value play here. Its a real mixed bag of possible ones, and he is just another of those.

9 Rockin Ronnie won last time, barely, but the move up looks to be too tough for him at this stage. He needed every bit of A Mac's saving him to be in the right spot last time. That isn't a good way to move up. He has to show me he can compete with winners.

10 Putnams Legacy draws bad here, and was gapping at the end last time with a better post and easier trip. Hard to like him in this spot. He has two zeros for two years. That jumps off the page at you.