WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 26, 2016

RACE 1

1 Twomacsonemach was probably the winner last week if he gets a minor breather to the half. He didn't. Henry blasted him out of there and clearly he thought he was going to win the race. Then along comes Cullen, parked out with a horse that wasn't going to clear, and he runs him the entire way. Henry had no choice but to leave him out there. That was enough to get this guy beat by a length at the wire in a very gritty effort. He reminds me a lot of Cajon Lightning, a similar Mach Three gelding who took a while to work out the kinks and put it all together. Henry opts for Weller's so JJ picks up the drive. That scenario worked out well in the opener last night. The rail start puts him at a slight disadvantage, but this is a short field, and this horse showed two back he doesn't need the lead to win against level company. My top call and I'd hope for 3-1, but would be willing to take 5-2.

7 Sir Galahad has been lightly raced over his short career, but shows flashes of high speed and talent, and he is willing to gut it out if need be. He made a road trip to the B tracks and comes back here with 16k made in 4 starts. He is going some very fast miles over London and Flamboro for this time of year, and that has to be respected. Because he won a couple of races, he now must move up on his return without winning at this track. That is the fly in the ointment. These are certainly in his skill range, and I'd rate him a shot on the very good form. He isn't always the soundest. I will have to see how he parades. I'd have to use him in the pick 5 unless he looks like a cripple parading.

2 Mayfield Duke was one of the ones who benefited from the battling last time. He is very much one who capitalizes when others do that, as long as he can be steered, which is a week to week, race to race thing with him. He finished 2nd that night, and has done that 3 of his last 4, and has a lot more 2nd's than wins. I will go elsewhere based on that he is the type that just doesn't get there with decent fields. There are enough in here to suggest something will beat him.

4 Cams Lucky Sam was flat and hanging on Monday night, gapping his cover on the last turn when he had every chance and pacing with the pack home. I have learned that Carmen's horses simply just go flat and come right back on without showing the form that suggests the turnaround. I like others better here, but I'd be inclined to use him in the pick 5 if I had a single in the coming races. Or if you do. McNair is white hot and in the zone right now. That is a factor and he seems to get along well with Carmen's stock. That is a point Portuondo makes in the Journal tonight.

3 P L Jackson was driven out hard by Cullen last time, but Trevor went with him and JJ filled up the hole inside. Cullen had no intention of backing off and looking for a seat, and Trevor was not letting him go in a stakes final To his credit, this one kept at it and paced well right to the wire. Cullen liked what he saw, so he bought him for himself. Will he go easy on this one and let him keep developing? I doubt it. I expect he thinks he is tough as nails and he will drive him based on that. I think this horse needs time to adapt, and can easily go sour if you keep pushing him. The other drivers gave him trips and saved him. So, I'm passing and watching this time. I like the horse. I don't know if I like him in Cullen's barn with him driving him.

5 Speedling watched the early battling last time from the bleachers, and picked up spots along the rail as others moved out to try and pounce. That left him little room in the stretch when the seam didn't open up. J Mac has made a good name playing that driving angle and getting it to work out more than a few times at big odds, which this guy was last time. He did gap out late when he had room, but by then, he maybe gave up or just didn't have the momentum. I'm willing to say he has decent form, and Harding's charges generally outperform their odds. I like others better tonight, but he wouldn't shock me and I keep my eye on him looking for a good spot if he holds that form.

6 Dreamy Fella is the one Henry sticks with as Weller has a lot of power these days and Henry likes to go to the power trainers. And who can blame him? I wasn't impressed with who beat this horse Monday night, and he wasn't traveling well the entire way. Weller's horses didn't exactly light it up last night at short odds. I can go against this one tonight when I like others better. Pass.

8 The Illuminator draws outside again and comes back on short rest. I would have trouble backing him in this class even from a better post. I'd even have trouble backing him in a conditioned claimer, which is where I would suspect he is heading. Lets see if he steps up here and shows me something I have not seen yet....some toughness and more ability. 

 RACE 2


4 Traceur Hanover has put back to back strong efforts together and moves back up to try the best this track offers. Fillion took him over his stablemate, something I didn't see coming. That will lead me to go to him for a slight edge. I'd want 3-1 at least to make him a win ticket play, and I'd really be hoping for 7-2. That all depends how much hammering the chalk takes. In any event, I take my top 3 in the pick 5 and if I get any of the 3, I have a value ticket, as the chalk single will wipe out a huge amount of the pool in one shot.

6 Evenin of Pleasure went a huge trip to be 2nd last time, but yet, Fillion has gone to the 4. That is interesting. I guess he is a better long term prospect based on his age and his past class when he was good at 2. I will list him 2nd, as I'm looking for an upset and he is one possibility. I have to go to his stablemate, since Fillion has done that. I'm not certain its one or the other, but if he likes him better, I will rely on that for a slight edge.

5 Nickle Bag comes off a vet scratch sick. He has banked 338k this year and he is hard to knock. 30 days off however leads me to think he wont be as sharp as he appears on the page, and I will list him 3rd, because he just steps up at times when you don't see it coming. If he were to follow the chalk 2nd over, that could be a recipe for him to get it done.

1 Andreios Kardia the obvious favorite who will be a short price if you want him. Single? Not for me. Use him? Not for me. I don't see any value in singling a horse many others will only to shorten a pick 5 into a pick 4 but gain no value. Its very tough to dominate at this level week in week out. He is very legit and tough to beat, but he can be beat. Moreau has two in here, and that tag team of two horses who can blast and control the front, along with others who can leave, means another very long trip for this horse from a rail start. That can get him beat late in the mile. At a likely 2-5, I can take my shot and risk getting taken out by one most would not leave off the ticket. Its a risk/reward play. I will risk it. I list him 4th, not because I think he will miss the ticket, but because I think my top 3 are more likely winners for the price. He probably makes the ticket, but loses the race.

3 Prescotts Hope was galloping to the gate last time, but Phil jerked him into a pace just in time to make the gate and then kept him together as he went to the front, and then never looked back on a really soft bunch. None of those will ever see the Preferred, and this is a huge class rise. Yes, he was as good as all of them last year. That was then. Pass for me. He will have to show me he has what it takes to handle these at this time.

2 Alexas Jackpot does not show me he can beat these as is. He has developed into a kamikaze puller, and that is not to his advantage at this level. I will wait for a class drop and even a more manageable racing style. He isn't good enough to bottom out high end fields.
 
RACE 3
10 A Rod Hall is the jeckyl and hide of trotters. He can take off running and be ratty, or he can stay at it, stalk, and blow by just about anything. Based on who calls the shots with him now, I can list him on top with a shot because I cant find another to put in the win slot. He is chancy, but I'd hope the 10 hole and his risky nature floats a price of 5-1 or so, which makes him playable.

5 Manofmanyimages moves up a shade here and he has shown that maybe he is not quite ready to do that. He will meet some older foes here, as well as moving up with the winner he could not reach last week. He is coming along. I fully expect him to be a high end 4yo trotter, possibly working his way up to the Preferred, in much the same way Rubber Duck and Covert Operative did last winter. That takes time and tonight is another matter. Bit player off his lines and racing style. He is coming off a rail start, and another one 3 back. That is a good angle. I will list him 2nd with the idea he can do a bit better from the middle of the car.

4 Duh Bubbees had a tough trip 2 back but rebounded nicely last time. He has to be respected, but maybe has trouble sealing the deal at this level. He isnt impossible, but I like a few others here.

7 Tony Soprano made a break leaving, and that is 2 out of 3 times he has done that, sandwiched around a nice score, his lone win on a very disappointing season based on the upside he hinted at when he was 2. He is not very consistent, which is bourne out by his 400k lifetime earnings and spotty racing form. He seems to have been that way from day one of his 2yo year, when Campbell would come in to drive him, and yet he still wouldn't always perform and justify a trip up just to drive him. In my view, he could use a trainer change to someone who might spot something to work on. That worked on Mach Power. For tonight, I will pass on him. He is possible, but erratic enough to push me in other directions.

9 Little Red Chev is tough to back with a post that goes against her preferred style. She drops a win tonight and if she races well, I'd be willing to go to her on a big class drop if she keeps her solid form. Good winter horse for what she brings to the table.

1 Walk to Folsom moves up again off an impressive win. He has come to hand very fast, a lot faster than any of us thought he would. That can happen with aged trotters who simply never made the races as younger ones, for whatever reason held them back. His 6-1 ML is foolish as is many of the lines this Morning Line lister lists. He soundly beat the 5 last time, yet he has double the odds on the ML. That just doesn't make sense. I would think he is the lukewarm favorite in this race, at something between 5-2 and 3-1. He does have the rail, and that is a problem for me. He likes to get out on top, and its a guess to see how brave he is if he has to park and go around horses after the half. Especially now that he tackles older ones with stakes wins and experience. I will go elsewhere based on all of that. And leave him off the pick 5, rolling the dice against him. He will get an acid test tonight to see where he fits on the class scale. I will watch him, with the idea I might go to him next time with a different post.

2 Zagster has bagged 126k in a long and productive campaign. I recall him qualifying in early winter last year, and he has raced out most of the time since. I've seen signs he is a bit worn down, and he has shown that in the last two miles. These aren't soft, and as he appears to be, I will look elsewhere tonight. 55 and a piece might also be his limit, and that isn't enough to win this race if the track is fast and fair. Pass.

3 Ken Kan Win has managed to stay trotting for a few starts and race well. I will give him that. He moves up without winning and hooks a tough bunch. Pass for me. I watch him for some drop in class in the hopes of beating him at a short price if he is ready to blow up again at that point. He has a history of that and history tends to repeat in life, and horses.

6 Azucar didnt show much on the transition to this circuit from Vernon last time. He kept up, but its a guess to say whether he might need to go lower to compete for the ticket. He meets many who beat him last time and others who look better than those. Pass for now. He will find a spot and level. I don't think this is either of those. 

8 Windsun Hugo tries his luck at the big boys table tonight. Post 8, his big class rise, and getting beat by Allies Gift last time, Tortola Sunrise before that, and I Want Kandy before that, does not inspire me to give him much of a shot. He will have to be seen. I see 99-1 in his future tonight.

RACE 4

In talking last night, it was mentioned that some of us should avoid making black and white judgements on horses, for our own good. I fall into that category, as does the person who mentioned it, and I think many of us do. Could I have had Waasmula last night? Nope. I didn't see her on form. Normally, I just toss her even when she has form, because as a bettor, I hate her. She burns you when you latch onto her, and beats you when you avoid her with something you like. But, I now try to avoid tossing her when she has good form. She has made almost a million in her life. That has to be respected. Ride Away Shark is another who is a Waasmula in the making for me. But, I have to just view her as another name on the page and rate her form, not her aura of a type I don't like. I approach this race with a clean slate mindset wise.

2 Miss Coco Luck draws the 2 hole and is likely to blast and then find a friend to carry her to the lane. CC knows her well, and knows what a winning trip looks like for her. She is in the right class, although she is more dangerous one level down. 3 9holes and 3 rails give her a license to have hidden sharp form. I will go top call on her. She wins about every 8th start, and she is right on track for that percentage to play out tonight. The key is hoping the right one tries to loop her and carry her.

8 One Last Bono wired them at the bottom with Cullen, but he has one in here, so J Mac hops aboard. These are tougher, but she has a style that might negate that. I'd think Miss Coco Luck would be willing to let her go. Will Ride Away Shark make a move on them and give this one a pocket trip? That is the race question. I don't know. If she gets that trip, she is possible.

1 Ride Away Shark paced a strong mile last time but had to work hard to get the lead, and then was passed by another with strong class and another who has the odd good day and has some ability when that occurs. She has always been a very low win percentage type, at 2 for 34 this year and 5 for 60 the last two years. Can she get away well enough from the rail to get a decent trip and be liver at the wire? I 'd say the bias is against that, with Miss Coco Luck blasting from the 2 hole and others crashing down from the outside. She paced in 52 flat last time. That has to be respected. I give her a minor shot, but a shot nonetheless. She is 5-2 ML. I wouldn't go anywhere near that price, but she is one you'd have to use in the pick 4.

7 Sing Like an Angel can be a bit of a hanger, but she also earns her way. She bagged 137k in Alberta last year, dominating the Open mares for months. She might have been one that was better off staying there and having Cullen pay his family to race for him. He didn't. He brought her east with him, and now she has to grind out class moving money, which wont be first money most weeks. I will pass on her here, and see how she stacks up when she moves down to the bottom. She is a nice mare with medium ability who is now finding others with more ability.

3 Docs Hollywood moves up when she doesn't have to. I cant see how she competes with these with that form. She is on the trailer because the trainer is coming with others. That wont do anything for me as a bettor. Maybe she bags 5th money.

4 Southwind Geisha has major soundness issues and has begun to make breaks or look like she will when she doesn't. I cant back her until I see that sorted out. Pass for now.

5 Kiss Me or Not  moves up off a decent, gutty win. That field, however, was horrid. The distant 3rd place finisher was up the track last night. I think it was a good spot for her to cash in. She did. Now, she is back where she doesn't look viable. Pass. She will have to show me she is turning it around. As hard as it was to pass the leader last time, I don't see her with this bunch.

6 Back Yard Baby comes in off the layoff to try and make some money for the winter meet, which is more her speed and style.
Being that she was laid off lame and only went evenly in the qualifier, I will wait, watch, and also see if she drops her bottom line. If she gets no money tonight, she gets to come back next time, at the bottom, with a race under her belt. That would be a better and more likely spot for her.

9 Wildcat Beauty moves up, draws the 9 hole and has a terrible win record. She couldn't hold off the only challenger she had last week. I don't see this as a viable spot when you add it all up.

10 Your My Secret is a no shot type with the 10 hole and her 6th different driver in 6 starts. Nuff said. 

 

RACE 5

I'd certainly need my top 4 in this one for the picks, and if I had a pretty high certainty of cashing the ticket otherwise in any combo with this race attached, I might go top 6. Its a real crapshoot type of race to figure out who might step up.

5 Frankie Boy did better last time, but it still wasnt enough, and he rises a shade here. You can see some progression there, and the two that beat him last time aren't down on their luck types that give you a bad reference. Zeron is cagey with these types. He has a legit shot, like many do in this race.

7 Three of Clubs just went around last time, but paced a monster 3rd quarter off the shelf. With 3 qualifiers and a tune up race following a year off, and 500k in the bank, made almost all at 2 and 3, he fits the profile of one who needed that year to help whatever issue he has. He could come back and reel off some nice scores on the refresh and repair angle. He would never see a bunch like this other than the horrid year he had last year. Longshot chance on the talent rebound angle.

3 Proven Desire takes a class drop off a decent line and gets lasix for his first start in 3 weeks. The improved post is also a factor, although post 3 is not a very high percentage post at Woodbine as a rule. He might be the slight favorite, depending on how willing they are to go to Weller after last nights failure fest of his stock. Just another one with a shot in a race where there are many of those. He must start better to get home first. I don't think that memo needs to be forwarded to J Mac. If he is right, he will blast out and be in the top rung most of the way.

4 Bs Tyrrific comes to Weller as what looks like new owners. This one a homebred, with suspect breeding variables. Also the type Wellers training seems to make go forward. He is fast, and also has put 100k in the bank over two years racing on circuits that dont give you high overnight purses. He will have to leave better to have a shot to take this bunch. I dont see that as an issue with Weller tuning him up and Trevor sharpening the knife going to the gate. 8 of 25 is a good win percentage at any track, and he won money doing it. He didn't reel off 6 straight at Rideau beating 2 claimers.

1 Sunny Beach Day takes the big class drop, which is a good angle for him. He hasn't looked sound his last few, but he gets like that and still consistently turns it around. I have to ignore that factor with him unless he parades horrible, which he generally doesn't. Trevor goes to Weller, which is no shock or indicator, but, he generally is the driver that gets the most out of this horse. I'm willing to go against him for the win on the sum of all the factors, but would list him on the ticket or close to it with a shot if the right things happen. One of many who could step up here.

2 Real Kid ships in from a solid score at Flamboro, with the usual soft 2nd quarter the leader gets there and the accelerated pace from there to hold position if you are legit. He has showed talent before and also soundness and steering issues. He returns to Wallace on the return to this track. McNair sticks with his dads horse. I give this one a shot. Have to see him parade. His on track appearance is relevant to any play you can make on him.

9 Ideal Jet bombed out on me last time when he looked to be set up in a good spot to do damage with a false favorite and a bunch of non performers. I rarely play this horse because he disappoints me every time. He does well for his connections, but that doesn't help my bank account. He can beat me this week if he is better. Being consistent, as I mentioned last night means sticking with what works for you. Going against this type is something I consistently do. I could have had Champagne Phil to show last week, which was my initial intention. I played this one instead. So, I lost my bet, and lost some profit on the one I should have been on. My mistake. Wont happen again. Again, he can beat me. He is capable enough to do that. I will take the hit if he does.

10 Uf Bettors Hanover was really good last time out, 2nd to a class dropper with solid form who tripped out, and also he paced a huge back half. West's stock is really good right now. He pulled off the upset last night with Sierra Madre. Post 10, however, is a big issue for this horse. I will take my chances and stay away from him. He is dangerous enough with this bunch, but post matters when you aren't the best. He certainly is not that. His form is to be respected if he holds it and draws better next time back in with these.

6 Hidden Potential too many options in this one to go to him. He will have to drop to the absolute bottom and give me big odds for me to back one who doesn't win many at this track...or others.

8 Smarter Yet Another one on the trailer that probably doesn't show up if he doesn't have car pool mates to come with him. I like others a lot better here. I cant use him based on so many I can. He grinds out a good buck at the B's. He would be better off racing at Flamboro today and picked back up on the way home. Pass.

 
RACE 6 

 

 4 Its All About Sam  looked really good parading last time, but still didn't measure up in the race. She is 3rd time lasix, and still has work to do if she is going to be any more than a cheap claimer or B track type who finds soft fields once every 6 weeks. Her back half of 57.2 shows some improvement overall. I dont like much overall in this bunch, so I will give her a shot for the price. Steve Hudon has a history of bringing in big longshots he trains and owns that he has recently gotten. She is 0 for 16 this year. That is troubling. You accept some risk for the reward. For me, I'd have to get 15-1 and I'd actually want closer to 20 or 25 to take a shot here. I think that is possible with at least 3 legit low price contenders on the page.

5 Safekeeping has been rock solid on form for many weeks, but not as dominant in two tries at this level as she was the step below. That happens and has to be expected as she meets others who worked their way up and succeeded at that task just like she has. I will put her underneath my big longshot, but it could be either of those two, and even my 3rd choice has a variable I have to respect.

6 Batoutahill gets lasix and takes a class drop back to where she was fairly dominant. I would think she goes off as a slight favorite, in the 9-5 range. I have to respect all of that, and think she is in the mix, but the short price makes me take two others on top of her, She likes to come late. If the likely fave is willing to park out the 5, she could be sitting on that ones back and take an edge.

3 Major Muscle relaxed better last time and got the breather she needed. That was enough to hold off her main foe lately, and that one also maybe is tailing off a shade. These types are groove horses and this one has found the groove. Can she keep it going before she falls off like the rest of them? Generally those that do it on the front end every time go down faster. I will go elsewhere after cashing in on her last time. 

 

 2 Lmc Mass Oak was a solid 2nd last time and looks like a good claim. Lots of room to pile up earnings on this one, but he meets a tough bunch tonight to get on the ticket. He has a shot at that, but not for my win call. 

 

 1 Pink Pistol comes in with multiple breaks and a new trainer who I've never heard of. Also gets the rail for a young trotter. Thats enough for me. I will watch her once. At least. She has recently gotten trotting hopples and her qualifier was good. That's a start.

9 Giant Muscles draws bad and is not the most gritty, determined type you find. A better post, a few others who move up, he might slide into a viable spot. This isn't that spot.

10 Windsong Magic I would think is just getting around tonight and is to be watched for the score I know is coming in the next two months as Gillis sorts her out and she draws a viable spot to work with.

7 Stonebridge Peace drops out of the Autumn, but has issues and I like at least 4 much better than her without even thinking too hard. Pass.

8 All out Henry looks over matched tonight with post 8 and a lack of speed on the page. He isn't a young colt. If he had that speed, we would have seen signs of it before. Might have been an okay maiden play if he fit that, but that ship sailed 8 times already at the B tracks.

 

RACE 7

3 Mach on the Beach tries to keep the ball rolling here, and why not? He has all the right variables. He likes to leave and has a post to try and do that. He has the top driver, the highest percentage trainer and he is sharp and racing steady. How low a price would I take? I'm going to say 2-1, but that is really pushing it. I will say 5-2 or 3-1 would make me feel more comfortable, but I'm not sure that is realistic. I'd be on the fence to almost single him in here. When he gets good, he is the type he can reel off several. The 8 is likely to take money. Portoundo lists him on top and I'd think others will go to him on the class drop. That is why I think I get my price.

4 Reel had no pop last time, and I listed him with a shot in that race as I thought he was starting to put it together. He could this week also, and I will go back to him underneath my choice as a longshot play if that one fails. I don't like to take short prices on horses that dont win much, like the 8. I'd rather take a price on one like this, who is bound to pop in the coming weeks. That could be tonight. It could be in January.

6 Velocity Driven has changed his style this year, becoming a solid leaver, sitter and chaser. He was known as a consistent late closer with explosive speed before, but this style gets him more wins and more cheques. Last time it got him backed into and he got out late for 3rd. If he leaves hard, as this post is noted for being good to do, he has a shot at late room and the win. Minor shot, but he is possible if the trip works out.

8 Asap Hanover takes a drop, but he is prone to get beat while being viable at a short price. I will play him that way tonight. He has a shot, but I suspect odds wont match actual chance if I know the bettors at this track. He starts just poorly enough to fall into a trip that will cost him. That is all it takes for him to finish 2nd or 3rd, but not first.

5 Casimir Overdrive has decent form but has a tactical disadvantage at this level. He doesn't leave enough to get a soft trip. He will grind, but doesn't have high speed to pass the leader. He will hang the last turn, but pace forward in the lane. He loses too many lengths along the way to beat the winner, but wins anyway when he is one or two steps below this. Pass tonight. I like him back at the bottom or in for a claiming tag if he hits the right field. These are better, and the better ones beat him week in, week out.

1 Surprise Hanover had every chance to get at least 2nd last time, but didn't. He shows no vigor and never really has. I will wait until he dives back down and look him over then. I took a longshot on him last time and he raced like he was that. Time to move on from him for now.

2 Bugger Bruiser wasn't as dominant as I expected he might be last time, but he also had to lay off a speedball who could have cost him a decent trip. In any event, he doesn't stack up well with these as is. I like others. He is possible when he has a great night. There haven't been many of those since he was a 2yo bearcat who would park entire fields and live to tell. He lived to tell, but doesn't have as many answers as an aged horse.

7 Woggy Rocks took Avatartist at the bottom in a really soft field. My fat sister could take Avatartist these days. The move up does this one in. Pass.

9 Paparazzi Hanover went to Flamboro looking for a score but drew poorly and missed the ticket twice, albeit up close to the winner at the wire. Another bad post, plus his no try breeding suggests I can wait for a move to the bottom and a decent post and I will watch Cullen send him on a mission that night with the customary rocking and tattoo whipping needed to motivate this type. That worked just fine on October 16th when all the variables came together nicely at 1-5.

 

RACE 8

These races are fun to try and figure, because a lot of the pieces are dependent on the other pieces and what might happen, and what will happen if a piece changes and alters the race. Last night, Katies Beach stumbled right at the gate, and that gave JJ an easier lead than he might have. Because of that, he put Fillion back in the 2 hole and that ended up being the winning variable. So, we banter about who we like in these types of races, but it all depends on so many different things that COULD happen.

3 Mach Power was solid last time, leaving out well and coming back on in the middle of the track. Just missing the ticket in a blanket photo for 2nd. He isn't reliable yet, week to week, but he seems to be heading towards that. For whatever reason, JJ gets along with him best and can do more with him in the turns than others do. That is a plus as he sticks with him.

2 Daylight Rush wired them last week and is razor sharp. This is not a deep bunch, and he looks like 4-5 to me off the program. Not a price I'd take on horse that goes to the front hard every week. Those wear down fast, and he has a history of losing form after a few. I would think JJ is aiming for the 2 hole here and that means Cullen will be running at this one. That doesn't set it up well for this one if it plays out like that. It doesn't always go as you expect, but if that did, he should get picked up late by whatever you like. I like the 3, but whoever you like, I think they can take this one this week.

6 Flaherty got to the 2 hole last time and that is what it takes for him to be viable. Will he get there this time? Cullen seems to get hung out a lot and not many want to let him go. Is it because he is the new guy in town? Is it because he wants the top and doesn't have the power to gain the respect that the colony demands if you want them to grab up? I have no clue. But, he gets hung. A lot. That makes this race interesting. If he tries for the lead, doesn't get it, and attempts to back off, I don't see any holes for him. That leads me to play JJ and not this one or McNair.  I can list him 3rd. If JJ's one locks on a line in the turn and he beats him to the 2 hole, he becomes a lot more viable. That isn't impossible to happen.

5 Imkeepnthisguy missed last week, but has been solid with these for weeks. He does start slow, and that got him beat as the fave last time on a night when they battled but the winner beat him to the punch and daylighted the field to the tote board. His last quarters are just not quite good enough for one that likes to sit way out of it. That gets him smaller slices and less wins. I will call that scenario to play out again, unless Cullen runs McNair and he parks him, while JJ shuts the 2 hole off and this one can move earlier and get around them all. That is a lot to ask for or expect.

8 Electric Western is 5 for 48 with the 8 hole and Mario, at a level where he is dangerous from a good start but in trouble when he has to spot them 8 to 10 like he probably does here. He can get up for the ticket again here if enough battling occurs in front of him, if you want to play for a large tri and use him that way.

4 Weatherly beat Dialamara and Casimir Overdrive by wiring them on a night when that was a good tactic to deploy. Back in with these, he was well back at the start and paced home with the pack for no money. Possible bottom of the ticket type, but he looks in deep to beat them.

1 Perfect Vista has become one of many at this level, and while I've always liked him and viewed him as value when Sinclair tagged him and they jumped on him, I think he is at the level where he has trouble putting them back to back against tough customers, usually a different one every week. J Mac drives while Drury gets some vet work on his shoulder. I like others. He could make the super, even the tri. I don't view him as a likely win candidate.

7 Windsong Lightning was on a nice roll, but looks quite a bit over his head with this bunch. He has been off a month sick anyway. I will watch to see where he is at as he tries to get back on track.

 

RACE 9

Any of my top 3. I list them in order, but I dont make a claim that they are more viable than each other.

2 Company Man was potentially a sharp claim, as Team Moreau took a page out of Joe C's playbook and claimed one at Hoosier as the meet ends, so they can race him here right away without any penalty or restrictions. He isn't finishing well, but perhaps Moreau can do something about that. He has a fast lifetime mark, and on his best day, he can go enough to beat these. He is one of many who are possible.

6 Domethatagain ships in for Allard with better form than most of the rest that have, and a big bank account. He is hard to ignore with this bunch, although beatable enough on his Pocono form.

4 Cool Rock is razor sharp and looked like the winner last time until picked off by the longest shot on the board, who he faces again. I could make a case for him, but his pace dependent style makes it hard to take him on top when he reaches this class. One of many, another who can be made a case for.

5 Mr Carrotts got up late last time, as the pace slowed to a walk. That worked out for him and he was full value. He rarely catches a break like that. I will go another direction. His first win of the year. I dont see him as a likely double up candidate.

1 Vegas Rocks tried to draw off on them last time, and that has worked for him before. He got picked up last time, and meets a few of those again, and some new ones who look better than him. I will go elsewhere.

7 American Virgin has looked horrid on the track of late. JJ ditches a Grant horse for Allard's one. That is plenty enough reason for me to go with what I would have anyway. He has to show me a lot more soundness to get me back on his bandwagon.

8 Continual Hanover draws badly and will dig an early hole by sitting 10 or so off the pace. He is a 3yo who now has to face older ones until Darling moves him to some guy at Dover or Yonkers in the near future. He is up against it to win races when he now hooks the class droppers he finds every week.

3 Heza Thrill N is one I cannot back based on how O'Sullivan's stock performed last week. I will wait to see if he is fit and healthy. He would have to be 100% tip top to be viable with these.

 

 

RACE 10

Either of my top 2, and I'd want 4-1 on both, which I think is reasonable in this type of race. Give or take. 7-2 on a late flash is something you live with when they are in this range.

6 Mach Pride ships back in for Carmen. I've always liked this horse. Drives straight, he is fast off the gate and he will carry his speed if he can stay up close and reserve just enough for the end of the mile. Being down at this level also helps. He has shipped back in before and popped right off the bat. Top call on all of that, from the best post at this track with the red hot McNair who is doing well with Carmen's stock. 

1 Avatartist coughed it up again last week, this time to Woggy Rocks, who had suspect form but showed up to make this one pay for easing up in the lane, as he is prone to do at this point. He has to move up because he has picked up slices. That isn't good, but this type sometimes beats you when you ditch him after he failed you as a short price when he looked solid. He didn't get me. I know his act. In this race, he has the 6 horse who is willing to blast and cover him up the entire way. That could get him the type of brave trip to push him over the top. What price would make me take such a foolish leap of faith? I'm going to say 4-1.

5 Darcee N is finally in drop and pop territory, as I mentioned he would need to be for me to go to him. He also comes off two rail starts, and that certainly cost him a bit of position to the half, and resulted in longer trips. I will list him 3rd. I like two others better and they have proven drivers who can win races at this track. The jury is out on Cullen at this stage. Late pick 4 use, but I wouldn't play him on top as a win bet. One more level down, I'd probably be all over him.

3 Dalton Did It takes a big class drop, and keeps Fillion. His last win is good enough to be right up there with these. I list him 4th, but he is possible if those ahead of him, who dont always show up in the lane, stick to that history tonight.

10 Champagne Phil would be on my ticket if he drew better. He didn't. He could still make 3rd, but I am listing my top 3 as win candidates, not ticket candidates. Another night for him.

2 Lovedancinwithyou won at the bottom on this circuit at 40-1, but is more of a B track horse and struggles with these, even though they aren't that difficult. I will go elsewhere. He isn't impossible to score at big odds again. Most of these can when they face friends who are riding on hard times like they are. Show Some Leg gave us an example of how that works last night. He needs to be in the top 5 at the half, not way back. He shows poor starts. His chances are not good based on what he shows you.

4 Shock N Rock draws slightly better and has been on the fringes with slightly easier. However, he seems to be just short of winning form with these. I like others better. If he goes back down a level, he is viable if the post gods are in his corner like they are tonight.

7 Trashytonguetalker has solid form with two wins in fast time, although cheap claimers can go 52 at Hoosier, so that is negligible. First time Weller, off a vet scratch and 3 weeks off. I will go against him here based on what I saw last night. I've said before that Weller is better with this exact type 2nd start in his barn if you like the horse. I have to see him. I didn't like Eas Ideal at all and he confirmed that by being NFG every time he steps on the track.

8 Arrived Late has never performed well at this track and a post 8 start where others will outleave him makes it easy for me to discount him.

9 Zingers Laugh is up against it tonight on post, class, form and soundness. I can toss him with confidence.