Party tried to leave last week, could not get there, and there were no
holes. She drove on, but was mostly in the road. She will just back up
when that happens, but come right back next week and be viable if the
trip works out. You can be sure Trevor will have the sword up and he is
blasting to get the lead or a comfy 2 hole. If she achieves that, she is
certainly capable of beating the 6. Hard to find another who shows much
to go with otherwise.
1 Mystical Wonder
was 2nd over last week, tipped wide around poor cover, but the winner
was on her back and blew right by her, and then reeled in the runaway
leader. She did keep coming, and she is possible in a weak bunch where
anything close the week before can turn the tables the next week.
4 Total Knockout
is the type that wins races like this when the front enders battle and
set it up for a closer who can show up every now and then and pass
staggering ones. Longshot chance if all that happens.
Dismissed mowed down a runaway leader last week, but she isn't always so
racy and is more likely to stop as she did in previous weeks. The party
was last week and this week is more likely to be the funeral to those
who hop on her chalky favorite train. I will look for 1 or 2 who figure
but will bring better odds because she popped last week. She is likely to make the ticket, but I list 3 win candidates to go to in the pick 5, and completely leave her off for that play.
7 Watt a
Funny Face was the early leader last time but backed through them and
beat nobody. Hard to like her and think Trevor is going to make the lead
and let her go. She could however, run him and set it up for others.
2 Darktwistedfantasy was
a hot commodity last year, but tailed off sharply in the winter, and
still shows little to suggest she can finish with these types. Its an
interesting rise, when 6500 looks like the right fit.
3 Phoenician Gal
stayed in last week, and was being chased to keep up, but split horses
late as they staggered home and picked up 3rd. She doesn't seem to have
more to offer than that. I will go to others for the upset.
Greystone Ladylike is the type that really benefits from a class drop
like this, especially when she draws a post that keeps her up close or
in the race to the half. She is one of a few I can see taking this field
down. I'd want 4-1 to make her a solid win play.
Charm moves back down, but skipped this level on the way up. Post 9 and
another come from behind try, I don't think she picks these off as
easily as she did 2 back, when it was a very soft field. She is possible
if they battle and she doesn't have horrid cover to get around. That is a lot to count on.
Focus N is generally a pretty gritty and tough mare, but she appears to
lost her good form and now is on the downward class move. That didn't
help last time and she was given an extra week off. She is dangerous
enough, but I will go to others with better current form. She is likely
to turn it around in a few weeks.
Shezarealdeal had every chance to win last time but couldn't pace away
or shake the eventual winner. She seems to lack the grit needed and last
week was evidence of that. I will pick others to go to and roll the dice against her finding a way.
5 Lights Go Out raced okay last week, but picked up 4th money, and that forces her to move up a level. Based on her current form, that is not good for me. Pass.
Drivingthedragon N can leave fast, but going all the way at this level
seems beyond her. She probably needs to hit bottom to get back in the win column. I will wait for that class drop.
2 Miss Coco Luck stays at the same level, and had no pace when it mattered last week. I still think she will need to hit bottom to be win worthy.
4 Onyourmarknatava seems one level above where she is dangerous and that showed last week and the week before. I will pass until I see something that changes my mind.
Barockey was completely outpaced last time and backed up sharply. She
might be viable one class down, but will have to drop some money to do
so. I will wait for that move to make a call against her, if that is the
case. I don't ever play her, but I wont go against her either if she
looks like the one. She doesn't in here, for sure.
8 Mia Oh
My has beat these once, and been 2 lengths off the winner last time with
a post 9 back of the bus start in between those. She looks very
playable considering the soft nature of the competition. My memory of
this filly family is that they start late in their careers but progress
quickly and benefit from not being tossed into the fire at 2.
Shadows K has had 2 decent efforts at this level, sandwiched around a 10
hole start where she ended up first up at 65-1. She looks to be very
viable, and one of a few who get it done for a decent price.
Evangelin Seelster showed flashes of talent last year, but also showed
the trouble that caused her to make breaks and be shut down in the
middle of stakes season. She will have to be seen, but is possible if
she has come back sounder and ready to race. Her qualifier suggests she
is, as she kicked home with good speed to indicate readiness.
2 On the
Minute Mark just missed last week, and her last two have been reasonably
good. However, she has 1 win from 25 starts, and thus, is a mare that
broke her maiden and has been stalled at this level since. I will take my shot against her and the other possible fave.
I Wish You Well has now missed a month with a vet scratch sick. She
beat these once, but most times does not have what it takes to go all
the way to the wire. If she draws favorite status, as the ML suggests, I
will be happy to go against her.
Shooteronbye moves out of the claimer, where she wasn't getting it done,
and into the nw2 condition, which is a mixed bag where its not that
much tougher. She has not shown she can start well though, and that is
an issue for the win spot. I will watch. She looks like a bit player.
9 Life Groove is likely to be in a deep hole from this post and I'm not sure she can overcome that. I will play others.
Mach Majorette is another slow starter who aims at conditions tonight
and ditches a claimer. She looks in very deep considering her overall
performance. A straight 8 claimer looks like the better spot to me.
Itsallabouthebass came off the shelf last time without lasix, went
around, took her time back down, but now draws the 10 hole. Another day
maybe. Can't see her overcoming this post, and she would have been iffy even from a good post.
Jewel shows B track speed to this point, and will have to prove she can
offer more. I will pass for tonight and see if she belongs. The jury is out.
Magic didnt get to race last week, but draws well here, can leave a ton
and draws the red hot Roy. I will go to her and play that the 5 either comes too late or gets hung up in traffic.
7 Sayitall Bb did all she could last time but the fractions went against her and she was 2nd best. She has upset potential here, as many do.
Bernadette takes her first shot at the top class, as she is 4 now and
will have to tackle the best around when she does well, as she has for
many starts. I rate her an outside shot, but there are at least 3 in
here who have tackled the top rung for a long time and won. She will
have to prove she can handle all of them at once. I say she makes the ticket, but 2 of them beat her...for now.
Sandbetweenurtoes as has been her history, she will miss time and then
come back, race easy, and then fire the following time. I expect a big
effort from her here, and also a short price, and while I expect her to
be right there, she can arrive too late, and I will play for that angle.
Waasmula gained easy control last time and just stepped it up from the
half...game over. Not going to be that easy this time. She is very good
right now, but also finds ways to lose when you think she is rock solid.
2 Dazzling Rockette has admirably won her way up to the tough class. I think she is a bit player.
1 P L Hurricane meets the full compliment of Preferred mares here. Pass for me.