WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 29, 2017

RACE 1

1 On a Sunny Day did pretty much everything right at 2, winning 4 of 6, being 2nd in another and running in the Superfinal, her only blemish. She did have the rail in that last start, and as we know, that can be a real problem for trotters, especially young trotters. She draws that again tonight. She was flawless in the 2nd qualifier back, doing everything right and angling in the lane to float by the others under no urging. She has a proven track record of being a very solid finisher, which is a big plus with this group. This is not a tough or deep field, and since she trotted in 55.4 at 2, and has had 2 qualifiers, I would think she can trot in 56 right away. I don't know if that is enough, based on how fast they were going Saturday night, and Fillion might be cautious leaving from the inside, as I'm sure this one has bigger dances right on the horizon, as Hamilton notes in the program. If the 2 takes a lot of win money, she is a viable option to play against her.

2 Pampered in Pink is typical of most of the young trotters with issues that Vanderkamp turns. He has taught this one to find a comfort zone, and he mainly does that by letting them float out and relax, so they stop getting edgy going to the gate thinking they will run, then gradually lets them move into the race and finish well, mostly going away from the field late. Once they get to that stage, he starts racing them more tactically. This one fits that profile. The step up from maidens to nw2, both tests she has passed, and then to nw3 requires a bit more speed and a bit more racing effort earlier in the mile. Last time she was floated out again towards the back and had too far to come, but she did go back to back 28 and change quarters, indicating she is progressing and still in very good form. At this stage, Jake And Pondas Lexus are too advanced for her, but she was right there with the rest, and meets a much softer field here. Post 2 is no problem, as she doesn't look to be in need of being in the top 5 at the quarter anyway.

She received mild urging at best last time, and certainly could have gotten 3rd if that was important. Hard to ignore her form, but she could bring a very short price tonight.

3 J N Ryder has 1 lifetime win in many starts, which he took 2 back at London. He is 5 now, and has earned a decent buck considering his win shy status. He won by leaving from the rail, which he has always been known to do, and backing down the half. Back with better last time and without control, he was back to his small pieces lifestyle. I can't play him in with some pretty nice ones.

4 Santini is likely gearing up for a solid Grassroots season, as he did last year. He has prepped well and took his time down nicely last time. This is his his 3rd start back, and loses Fillion to the rail horse but picks up Condren, who can arguably be considered better with this type of horse. He was gapping and finished only evenly last time, even though he had a very soft trip. I think he needs one more to be 100% fit, and he is only a minor use tonight if I am wrong and he steps up.

5 Life Well Lived tried Gold colts last time at Flamboro, on a miserable night and deep track. We wont know if he was actually good enough, because he jumped it off early and never recovered. He would need to take a second or two off his final time to go with the best of these currently, but he does have a good post to get out near the lead, and if one or both of the logical ones from the insider happen to blow up or encounter bad road trouble, he is viable. Carmen had a very good run on Friday and Saturday, and he can win a lot of races when his stable gets hot.

6 Bluebird D Train ships in from the B tracks, where she has done reasonably well. She tried a step lower at Woodbine twice, but wasn't good enough then. Perhaps she has matured a bit, but he is not finding a soft bunch at the top end of this field. She does bear in, or at least lean in enough that the move back to the big track will help her. She looks short on class to a few of these. Very minor use in the picks if you want to go deep. She would need them to fail.

7 Janderson goes 2nd off the layoff, plus 2 qualifiers, and is another prepping for probably a try at Gold Fillies again to see if she carries her 2yo form into 3. Some don't. She was following a loose on the lead leader last time, but gapped that one and was not with the top 2 when the win was decided. She also had the pack ready to swarm her, but the line came just in time. She did knock almost 2 seconds off the qualifier, and that is the fastest she has gone yet. I can see her as a bit player, and a minor shot if a lot of things go her way. Her breeding suggests that when others gradually progress and win in faster time, she will be more than happy to tag along like last time. I prefer others.

8 I Jasmin has a very low percentage trainer, and a very high percentage driver. What to do, what to do? She herself is also a 3 time winner who has done a lot of racing but is now a 6yo. McNair jumped off to take the 10, as you would expect anybody who can read the program would. Last time, off the shelf, she drew post 10, spotted them 20 at the quarter, but did trot forward late, with a back half in 56.1, evenly to only get beat 5. She might be a play next time if she draws better and duplicates that performance. She has a history of not duplicating performances. Lets see how she is this time. She trotted consistently in 55 and change last year before she was laid off. That would be in range for this class most nights.

9 Money Mission was decent enough last year, but like many that go from 3 to 4 and dont have restricted sire stakes types to play with, he is struggling. This is his 3rd start back, after many qualifiers to get back in the box, and he has been a slow starting bit player to this point. Both times a big longshot, and he draws the 9 hole here. He looks like a one speed, B track type that will do well when Georgian opens up. I will watch and wait for now.

10 Winter Sweet Frost banked 323k last year but has raced poorly in 3 starts to this point upon return. She jumped it off last time, and I would think the goal tonight from the 10 hole is to get away clean, keep at it, brush late for whatever that gets, and be going in the right direction for the first Sire Stakes, which is coming up shortly.

RACE 2

1 Northern Swift is a nicely progressing maiden who drops into a Grassroots, which generally is not a good angle, but this race has come up soft on that variable. The only one who is really proven, the 6, has suspect form and generally her type regresses as they go from 2 to 3. This filly has drawn a post 1 and 9, so she likely has been up against it. She gets the rail again, and that is a negative. Last time, from the 9, she tried to go directly left when the gate sped away, and Drury had to correct her, and in the meantime, she was left out with no hole. When she got to the turn, the hole was there, but Drury didn't want it, as there was one in front of that hole who was steppy and might have jumped right in front of her. So, he carried on, parked the mile, and she stayed with it most of the way, only tiring mid lane and coming home even. She is extremely green, but appears to have a lot of speed and potential. Minor shot tonight if she puts it together. At least if she veers slightly left leaving, she only has to hit pylons and not other horses.

2 Southwind Geo is the opposite of the 1. She is a seasoned maiden, having raced a lot at 2, and still going up to this point. She is now 0 for 15, and she returns from London. I will say that other than last time, she drew badly every other time at London, and because London is more about earnings that wins, she was racing higher than what a straight maiden might have to face. Last time, she did draw better, but moved first over into a 28.1 third quarter that did her in. She looks like a one brush horse, as her breeding would suggest she is. I could see her as a viable, very minor longshot chance in with a bunch that have enough holes to make me think like that.

3 Cams Lucky Star was bred by MacIntosh, on one of his favorite crosses (Camluck/Artsplace), but when she showed up as a racehorse last year she was already in the hands of the connections she returns to tonight. Same owner, but after a stint in Ohio, she returns to team McNair. She progressed nicely and then got it done in a maiden at Miami Valley 2 back, but then had post 8 at Scioto, was at least 5 lengths off the gate when it sped away, spend the entire time in the backfield in a second set of no good ones that were going nowhere, and she couldn't even pass them. I like others a lot better than her, and if she were to back up that 3-1 ML and go off the fave or close to it, I'd book her action and leave her off any ticket.

4 C Mary wired the bottom maidens at London, then came right back at the added distance race and wired those. She made the move to the big track last time, but was an iffy leaver, then hung, then gapping out badly, and finally well beaten 10th. She does show two fast quarters to finish off that race, but she was doing nothing while doing it, and others did better than her. I think this move gets her a bit ahead of herself. Her trainer sports a high average, so he appears to know how to spot them to make money.

5 Deprived is a very aggresive type, but more than anything, she is grabby as long as she is following along. Three back JJ tripped her out in the deuce, but when shown a clear lane, she couldn't even pass a tired and running in leader, who raced poorly again next time, and let another by as well. I can see her blasting out here and looking for someone to follow, but I'm not sure how that ends up in a winning trip. She will have to do more. She is also a maiden, but a poor performing one.

6 Southwind Ion started out with high hopes when Coleman brought her out in a Gold right off the bat last year. That never really worked out, and she was sold after spending the spring in Andrew Harris's stable, when she was thrown into a conditioned claimer at Pocono last time, and raced terrible. Gilmour takes over here, and she draws well. Those are two variables that can't be ignored, as well as her 4 lifetime wins, her 53.4 mark taken last year and her 68k in the bank. She is hard to ignore, as Hamilton has done in his comments, and I'd have to use her in some manner in the exotics. She will have to be seen, but she has a class and experience edge on a lot of these, but terrible form to go on. According to the program, she will be removed from racing on Lasix tonight. That is an interesting change you don't see often. London is done and Grand River hasn't started yet, so McClure is in to drive her.

7 Fading Shadow was bred and raced by Jack Darling last year, but he moved her out the door, as she didn't appear to be much stock. She tried the Grassroots once last year, was 9th, and then hit the conditioned claimers until she was purchased by the new connections. She has come back ready to race, and bagged 2 2nd place finishes at London, as she moves here to try the stakes fillies again. She has a shot as she appears to be improving. I'd use her in a minor way.

8 Maching Me Zilly is an 0 for 13 maiden that draws the 8 hole. That isn't a good start to my assessment of her chances tonight. She had post 9 last time, 8 before that, and was in a deep hole both times. No reason to think she isn't in that hole again here. She does show finishing well, and back in a straight maiden, I think she is a viable play on the right night.

9 Machs Echo is a homebred that barely raced at 2, and draws poorly tonight, after spending the winter at Pompano and shipping into London to get her season started here. She is hard to like and one I will have to see parade and race to get a read on for next time.

RACE 3

1 Stenhouse Hanover beat a pretty soft bunch of maidens last time by simply staying trotting, going one speed, staying out of trouble and outclassing them. There are a few in here that he wont get away with that. He is likely to be as good as many by the fall, but he is not there yet. This is a tough climb all things considered.

2 Innovative Force is a 4yo gelding that is 1 for 30 something, with weak form. He retains Roy, but he starts slow and had missed almost a month, and meets a few in here with high hopes for a bright future, which this one doesn't look to have. Of note, he did draw the rail 3 times in a row at Woodbine and was a bit better last time from a better post. If he were to perform tonight, I'd consider him for a longshot chance next time. He took his lone win at Flamboro, so, in reality, he is a maiden at this track, but doesn't get to race against them. Not tonight for me.

3 Perfect Mass came right out and was ready to race at first asking, scoring impressively. She was pushed right in against stakes foes next out and the pace was much faster. When moving well, she appeared to interfere slightly up front and jumped. Otherwise she looked okay. If that issue is sorted out, she is back in where she can compete and has a legit shot to take these down, especially if the 7 has similar issues to last time which didn't cost him then but will tonight against one like this.

4 Euro Gap was in the Takter barn in the winter, and he got him sorted out right before the sale, and Grant bought him. He has returned to his spotty consistency and jumped it off twice before holding it together in the qualifier. He shows high speed when he can put it all together. Minor longshot upset potential because of the type of colt he is. I wouldn't want him to beat me tonight because he figured it out and others just bomb out.

5 Tougher Than Ever seems to be a one speed type. He goes 29 and change almost every quarter, an on a night when 57 and change or 58 wins the race, he will win that race. Otherwise, he just goes along and picks up whatever is left on the table. Last time, he was on cover, which was poor but going forward, then lucked into a mare who had broken equipment and a front end stopper who bagged it and that landed him 3rd, with no threat to the top 2. His slow starts don't inspire confidence that a one speed type like him can storm home and beat them all.

6 Just for You draws the best post and goes out for Boyd, who is red hot with the longshots lately, and he owns this one himself. She has progressed nicely off the shelf and closed well last time to be right there. Shot at a price.

7 Dancer Hall is an interesting one. He is obviously talented, and has a powerful frame and strides in full gear. He also stays out a long way and just keeps going. However, he does show the signs of soreness and lameness that you would expect from one who has an Amigo Hall dam and Deweycheatnhowe son. I'd still use him in a minor way, but he is ripe to go down if he keeps needing finessing like he did last time.

8 Weslynn Dancer shows a lot of X's on the page, including her last race and 2 of her last 3. Post 8 tonight, and there are a few in here who are ahead of her on most variables. I will pass on her until I see something of a consistent effort week to week. Being one of Bax's, I'm aware she is capable of turning it around fast and scoring at a big price.

9 Heineken Seelster is not one I can back on many of the variables I see, namely post position, coming off a layoff, makes breaks, cheap bred, never beat much or gone fast, and on and on it could go.

10 Vero Amore Bi was aimed at the big dances and won a Gold before going lame and being shut down. He looked lame long before that, and now comes back off the shelf with 2 qualifiers and post 10. I would think Randy races him easy and his efforts will be put into another day for a better purse.

RACE 4

1 Rose Run Samantha made a very impressive post parade appearance last time and raced right to it in the race, being 2nd from the 10 hole and giving the winner a good run in the lane. She is a maiden however meeting many proven winners, draws the rail, and has a driver who uses others when winning is more important than teaching. She is possible, but I wouldn't be taking a short price on her and I suspect that is what is coming.

2 Out of Sight was aimed high last year, but couldn't quite cut it, and ended up just winning a maiden and the final of the Autumn Series. She did make 46k and was fairly competitive when spotted right. She comes back off the shelf with two qualifiers and racing at the Grassroots level now. This isn't a sterling field at first glance, so, I could see her getting it done and I'd have to use her in the pick 4 and 5 if I were to play that. This could be one RW gets out near the pace, buries, and comes up the rail late to steal it.

3 Kloof Street has never really looked sound in all the times I've seen her, and now she returns for the season off 3 qualifiers, which she needed because she ran in the first two and got around last time with the trainer driving. That is not inspiring me to use her, in spite of her upside potential at times.

4 Royal Point ships in with some decent lines and a solid winning record.....beating maidens from rail starts at Rideau. If that is the kiddies pool, she is swimming in the middle of the ocean without a life preserver here. She will have to be seen and prove she can handle some relatively tough customers for her.

5 Sheer Talent was pretty solid last year, and both made money and won races. This year has been another story, as her first 3 starts have been awful. Carmen's barn was very cold, and she is also a Badlands Hanover mare, and they seem to go off form and then turn it around fast without warning. She has to be considered a dangerous longshot to use if you don't want to get wiped out here. Carmen has not gone the Lasix route here--his favorite fix it for the ones that stop---so I infer there is some other issue and he is working on it. Tonight could be the night it pays off.

6 Ask for Me is 1 for 13 life, got that win with a superb rating that gave the only legit one on her back no chance, but otherwise has not performed. She is coming off 3 bad posts in a row, so, while I don't like her for the win tonight, I could see her turning it around in the near future if I see something remotely positive here.

7 Gottalovemyshadow is both very eager, and very green, and at times she drives like a snake, and almost run up on horses when she follows. She will probably grow out of that, and she does look talented when she gets it right. One of many in here, but I'd have to use her. She paced in 53, back to back 27.3 quarters in her last start. That appears better than most of these.

8 Braonach wired a soft bunch at Flamboro in April, but otherwise she has been a bust as a racehorse to this point, and gets the 8 hole tonight. She appears to take after her brothers win shy tendencies. I can't see how she makes the ticket.

9 White Dancer shows enough to be a player with this group if she wasn't in the 9 hole start jail. I guess you could add her if you have room, as J Mac has been known to find a trip to get this kind home. That is your call. I haven't decided yet myself if I want to do that. She also has soundness issues, so being Race 4, you get to see who she is on that front before you play the pick 4. I will avail myself of that option. For the pick 5, you have to make the call at 7:25.

10 Big Chute is a bit player maiden from the 10 hole facing winners, and some stake winners. Hard to see how she can beat these.

RACE 5

1 Pickled Preacher went to the top in his debut last time at Flamboro and wired them. Hard to knock that effort, and he gets to race maidens at this track. I will watch him once with these, and some of them have gone pretty fast to date and he is likely coming from off the pace with a rail start. Tab for later. Pass for tonight.

2 American Sportsman could easily go off at 1-5 tonight, and if it was just off the program, that would probably be okay. However, he shows very troubling lameness signs, and last time was galloping after the wire and for a good stretch after that. McNair was slashing on him to get it back together. He has showed those troubles before, and thus is a blow up candidate. On talent, he probably has a big edge on these but not so much that he can be 70% and beat a few who show enough. Minor underneath use to CYA, but I'd go against him and hope he proves me right.

3 Big Charlie Horse has big upset potential, and should be a big price. He made his lifetime debut last time, from post 9, and spotted them 20 at the quarter. He paced a big 3rd quarter, showing the type of speed you hope maidens translate into winning form as they progress. Obviously he will have to do a lot more and go a lot faster, but his dam had that type of speed and class, and of course, his sire is a known quantity. This field is ripe for a longshot. He could be the one. Or not. Tough call when you only have that race to go by.

4 Penzance Hanover started poorly in his career debut, was out and moving wide, was in contention but not looking terribly dangerous, but then wiped out by a loon who had to deal with a blind driver who came out where there was no clearance. He hooked wheels and came to a dead stop. Minor shot, but I want to see him go an entire mile and work for it before I call him a serious contender. Mayotte generally is a long term thinker and isn't in a hurry to win a maiden with a 2nd time starter.

5 Creepin is a very fast leaver, but he appears to need to sit a long time and draft. When he did that 3 back, he stayed on for 2nd. When he didn't 2 back, he walked home. The improved post here gives him a big shot to turn the tables on whoever cuts it if he can sit on a live helmet and one brush later to contend and possibly win. Top call for the upset over the obvious faves.

6 Abbeydorney looks to have some speed, and was tried briefly against Metro foes at 2, with a poor result and not a good finish to his year. He switches barns to Marfisi as he resurfaces, and draws the good post. He is a contender, but I like others in this spot. I have to see him and see how he races.

7 Tremendous Play has 2 poor posts in a row, and draws better here, but meets what would be considered a deep maiden field compared to most nights. Not for me tonight, but he could be a longshot player as the summer progresses.

8 Uncle Reimus shows poor starts and some breaks leaving otherwise, coupled with post 8 tonight, it makes it hard to back him. I have to see him. His breeding suggests he is very fast, but also might have some steering issues if he is like the others on that cross.

9 Bobcat Bound made 13 starts at 2, but never got it done, although he tackled the best out there many times. He ended the season in a maiden, and didn't get it done there either. He qualified okay to be second to Abbeydorney, and I could see him putting it together right away at a big price.

10 Rock on Line is 0 for 10 and draws the 10 hole. That isn't encouraging. I could see him picking up a slice, but will wait another day for the win slot.